I'm not sure I understand point 1, about non-linearity. Is there any conceivable way that could cause the odds to shift in your favor? Point 2 I think could on

I'm not sure I understand point 1, about non-linearity. Is there any conceivable way that could cause the odds to shift in your favor? Point 2 I think could only make the odds worse for you if it involves increased overhead for the insurance company. Your last point is a good one, though. There's a bit at the end of the article about this: Of course, “sucker” might be hyperbolic. After all, insurance is ostensibly a competitive industry so market efficiency suggests that their profits not be too obscene overall, which means the effective odds you’re offered shouldn’t be too skewed. Fundamentally, it’s an empirical question though, hinging on claims paid vs. premiums collected. I could well be proved wrong: buying insurance may only be *slightly* stupid, not ear-full-of-cider stupid.