I would expect they don’t have very clear cut answers because both involve interactions with extremely complex systems that no one person is capable of fully un

I would expect they don’t have very clear cut answers because both involve interactions with extremely complex systems that no one person is capable of fully understanding. I don’t know the explanations for why we hear such conflicting confident answers, but this is my suspicion: I imagine in both cases the majority of experts in the field would provide somewhat nuanced advice, couched in cautions about how much about these systems they don’t know or fully understand. None of those experts break through. What does break through is all you end up hearing from, which is a smaller minority on each side willing to make bold and confident predictions.