6 ms·

' Large high-voltage transformers are not things that normally wear out. Since they have long service lives, their production is quite slow. People speak of lea

' Large high-voltage transformers are not things that normally wear out. Since they have long service lives, their production is quite slow. People speak of lead times of months or years for ordering one. I have not looked into this aspect in detail, but expect that production could be sped up considerably if need be: there's nothing fundamentally difficult about manufacturing a transformer, even a high voltage one. Whether, in such an event, it actually would be sped up is another matter; highly competent people would have to be in charge of the effort, and both our political parties are weak on technology.' There have been historical political efforts to have off line back up transformers in place ready in the event of an EMP. also fuses built in to protect the transformers from overload. These have not got as far as legislation.

idiotsecant 5y ago
I know you are quoting and not claiming but large high voltage transformers definitely wear out... They have lifetimes just like anything else!I am working on a project replacing a 500kv GSU right now. I am curious what sort of fuse you think would prevent EMP-like damage though.
- peddling-brink 5y ago
  Why wouldn't a fuse protect from emp-like damage? My understanding is that an emp introduces electrical currents in the lines. Protecting the transformer from electrical overloads should protect it from emp. No?
  - Xamayon 5y ago
    The damage may happen too quickly, similar to how typical fuses or circuit breakers won't protect you from a power surge or nearby lightning strike. Other tech would probably work though. Unfortunately, there's a lot of conflicting info on how powerful HEMP attacks, CMEs, etc would be/how much protection would be needed to have any effect at all. Having reliable info would greatly help for determining the feasibility of protecting systems all over the world. Regardless of 'criticality' even, as what good would the internet be if HN's servers and such are all down? ;)
  - Animats 5y ago
    An EMP attack and a geomagnetic disturbance are completely different. EMP events have rise times around 10ns. Geomagnetic disturbances have rise times in minutes.
  - jhayward 5y ago
    Geomagnetic storms are not EMPs. An EMP is a high-frequency, very intense burst in the electric field. A geomagnetic storm is a low-frequency, low-intensity change in the magnetic field. The effects of EMPs vs geomagnetics are very different.
- olivermarks 5y ago
  https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13705-019-0199-y https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s... gic resistors https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-19-98.pdf https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-19-98.pdf
bombcar 5y ago
This type of hand-waiving is amusing coming off a year where we couldn't even really speed up something as simple as toilet paper production.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- bostonpete 5y ago
  ...and yet, we dramatically sped up vaccine development.
  - VLM 5y ago
    Technically it was only the approval process.
- tgsovlerkhgsel 5y ago
  > a year where we couldn't even really speed up something as simple as toilet paper production. The toilet paper was obviously going to be very temporary, the total demand for the year would be unchanged. It also didn't cause significant problems. Very few people will die from lack of toilet paper, so governments aren't going to give out emergency subsidies. That makes it very uneconomical to scale production up. The power grid being down is an absolute disaster in most highly developed nations that depend on power, so warlike resources would be dedicated to addressing the problem. However, what I often don't see considered: Lead times are months in a country where everything works. If the transformer factory is without power, without a phone to reach the suppliers, and the suppliers are also without power, it could be significantly longer, and that ignores the general collapse of society that would happen without a power grid.
lstodd 5y ago
> I have not looked into this aspect in detail, but expect that production could be sped up considerably if need be This sort of ignorance is just sad. No, there is no way "that production could be sped up considerably if need be". None. And lead times are actually counted in years.
- krisoft 5y ago
  Great. Now we have olivermarks speculating that high voltage transformer production could be sped up, and lstodd vehemently saying the opposite. Could someone please substantiate the claims with something verifiable?
  - olivermarks 5y ago
    I put the quote about speeding up production etc from the parent article in quotes and then commented on it. I also posted a link to this paper https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-19-98.pdf https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-19-98.pdf my point wasn't about 'speeding up prduction' it was about previous political efforts to legislate to have transformers offline ready to replace blown ones, GIC resistors and most importantly early warning tech to detect incoming solar flares and take transformers offline to protect them.
    - lstodd 5y ago
      And I said it is impossible, not only from logistics perspective, as VLM did clearly show. > most importantly early warning tech to detect incoming solar flares and take transformers offline to protect them This is politically impossible. If one takes the entire grid offline, people suffer and lash out. If the grid is instead taken out by a solar flare, aliens, you name it - it's much easier to shift the blame.
      - olivermarks 5y ago
        There are plenty of space weather monitoring options available via satellite, telescopes etc monitoring the sun for a coronal ejection. We have several hours to prepare for them when they pass earth. 'The fastest Earth-directed CMEs can reach our planet in as little as 15-18 hours. Slower CMEs can take several days to arrive. They expand in size as they propagate away from the Sun and larger CMEs can reach a size comprising nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time it reaches our planet'. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections
LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
Even if the production could be sped up, the transport of the things involves complex logistics to get them where they are needed because of the weight. You can get a taste of that by searching for transformer heavy transport by ABB or something like that on youtube. Actually you can partially 'reverse engineer' the state of the grid by doing that :-) At least in Europe, or Germany. The involved parties, be it manufacturers, or logistic companies, or rail nerds have put it all on youtube. Anyways, just transport from factory to destination usually takes weeks. Even if only a few 100 kilometers.

idiotsecant 5y ago

I know you are quoting and not claiming but large high voltage transformers definitely wear out... They have lifetimes just like anything else!I am working on a project replacing a 500kv GSU right now. I am curious what sort of fuse you think would prevent EMP-like damage though.

peddling-brink 5y ago
Why wouldn't a fuse protect from emp-like damage? My understanding is that an emp introduces electrical currents in the lines. Protecting the transformer from electrical overloads should protect it from emp. No?
- Xamayon 5y ago
  The damage may happen too quickly, similar to how typical fuses or circuit breakers won't protect you from a power surge or nearby lightning strike. Other tech would probably work though. Unfortunately, there's a lot of conflicting info on how powerful HEMP attacks, CMEs, etc would be/how much protection would be needed to have any effect at all. Having reliable info would greatly help for determining the feasibility of protecting systems all over the world. Regardless of 'criticality' even, as what good would the internet be if HN's servers and such are all down? ;)
- Animats 5y ago
  An EMP attack and a geomagnetic disturbance are completely different. EMP events have rise times around 10ns. Geomagnetic disturbances have rise times in minutes.
- jhayward 5y ago
  Geomagnetic storms are not EMPs. An EMP is a high-frequency, very intense burst in the electric field. A geomagnetic storm is a low-frequency, low-intensity change in the magnetic field. The effects of EMPs vs geomagnetics are very different.
olivermarks 5y ago
https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13705-019-0199-y https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s... gic resistors https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-19-98.pdf https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-19-98.pdf

bombcar 5y ago

This type of hand-waiving is amusing coming off a year where we couldn't even really speed up something as simple as toilet paper production.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
bostonpete 5y ago
...and yet, we dramatically sped up vaccine development.
- VLM 5y ago
  Technically it was only the approval process.
tgsovlerkhgsel 5y ago
> a year where we couldn't even really speed up something as simple as toilet paper production. The toilet paper was obviously going to be very temporary, the total demand for the year would be unchanged. It also didn't cause significant problems. Very few people will die from lack of toilet paper, so governments aren't going to give out emergency subsidies. That makes it very uneconomical to scale production up. The power grid being down is an absolute disaster in most highly developed nations that depend on power, so warlike resources would be dedicated to addressing the problem. However, what I often don't see considered: Lead times are months in a country where everything works. If the transformer factory is without power, without a phone to reach the suppliers, and the suppliers are also without power, it could be significantly longer, and that ignores the general collapse of society that would happen without a power grid.

lstodd 5y ago

> I have not looked into this aspect in detail, but expect that production could be sped up considerably if need be This sort of ignorance is just sad. No, there is no way "that production could be sped up considerably if need be". None. And lead times are actually counted in years.

krisoft 5y ago
Great. Now we have olivermarks speculating that high voltage transformer production could be sped up, and lstodd vehemently saying the opposite. Could someone please substantiate the claims with something verifiable?
- olivermarks 5y ago
  I put the quote about speeding up production etc from the parent article in quotes and then commented on it. I also posted a link to this paper https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-19-98.pdf https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-19-98.pdf my point wasn't about 'speeding up prduction' it was about previous political efforts to legislate to have transformers offline ready to replace blown ones, GIC resistors and most importantly early warning tech to detect incoming solar flares and take transformers offline to protect them.
  - lstodd 5y ago
    And I said it is impossible, not only from logistics perspective, as VLM did clearly show. > most importantly early warning tech to detect incoming solar flares and take transformers offline to protect them This is politically impossible. If one takes the entire grid offline, people suffer and lash out. If the grid is instead taken out by a solar flare, aliens, you name it - it's much easier to shift the blame.
    - olivermarks 5y ago
      There are plenty of space weather monitoring options available via satellite, telescopes etc monitoring the sun for a coronal ejection. We have several hours to prepare for them when they pass earth. 'The fastest Earth-directed CMEs can reach our planet in as little as 15-18 hours. Slower CMEs can take several days to arrive. They expand in size as they propagate away from the Sun and larger CMEs can reach a size comprising nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time it reaches our planet'. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections

LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago

Even if the production could be sped up, the transport of the things involves complex logistics to get them where they are needed because of the weight. You can get a taste of that by searching for transformer heavy transport by ABB or something like that on youtube. Actually you can partially 'reverse engineer' the state of the grid by doing that :-) At least in Europe, or Germany. The involved parties, be it manufacturers, or logistic companies, or rail nerds have put it all on youtube. Anyways, just transport from factory to destination usually takes weeks. Even if only a few 100 kilometers.