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Isn't the scarcity of Lithium also a major problem? It's already an expensive commodity, how could it possibly scale to replace all the internal combustion eng

by skohan 5y ago

Isn't the scarcity of Lithium also a major problem? It's already an expensive commodity, how could it possibly scale to replace all the internal combustion engines even in the US for example?

FridayoLeary 5y ago
Shh. Don't tell anyone.
fogihujy 5y ago
As for the scale of replacement, I think there are many who don't realise how major the shift from ICE to electrical will be. We're talking about large changes in everything from critical national infrastructure, the job market, long-term plans for national defense, the environment, public transport, voter approval ratings, food production, and the list just keeps on going. There's a large number of ifs, buts and maybes involved, and lithium availability is just a small piece of that. All this is supposed to happen within the next 15 years, at least according to quite a few politicians. Increased lithium prices is a good thing since it means that recycling will be financially viable once prices of freshly mined-lithium increases.
- slfnflctd 5y ago
  > I think there are many who don't realise how major the shift from ICE to electrical will be Could not agree more. With all the things we're talking about using batteries for (electrifying almost all wheeled transport and some aviation, huge amounts of grid storage to smooth out rough solar & wind inputs, grid-independent installations), this is going to be an absolutely massive, sprawling industry. Batteries are likely to be a bottleneck for a long time. We will find ways to reuse and recycle the ones from old cars because there will be enormous incentives to do so. The downside to this is that I'm not expecting battery prices to really drop much for quite a while. They may even go up. These aren't microchips after all; the laws of physics prohibit any significant miniaturization.
kwhitefoot 5y ago
Lithium is not scarce. It is more abundant than lead. "At 20 mg lithium per kg of Earth's crust,[45] lithium is the 25th most abundant element." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium) " lead's relatively high crustal abundance of 14 ppm; it is the 38th most abundant element in the crust." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead) The problem is that easily mined high concentration deposits of lithium are rare so it is expensive to extract. Some of the high price can be simply attributed to high demand occurring after a period of demand low enough that mines were closed in North America. Now that demand is high there is pressure to develop new mines in the US; see, for instance, https://qz.com/1975325/electric-cars-are-fueling-the-uss-lithium-mining-boom/ https://qz.com/1975325/electric-cars-are-fueling-the-uss-lit.... In theory we can extract vast amounts from seawater we just need enough energy. See, for instance, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/seawater-could-provide-nearly-unlimited-amounts-critical-battery-material https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/seawater-could-provi..., https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsmaterialslett.0c00385 https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsmaterialslett.0c00385, https://www.samcotech.com/is-it-possible-to-extract-lithium-from-seawater/ https://www.samcotech.com/is-it-possible-to-extract-lithium-....
audunw 5y ago
The Lithium scarcity scare reminds me of all the peak oil hysteria (which I'll admit I succumbed to as a teenager.. 2009 being doomsday back around 2004 I think). You can't use existing reserves as an indicator. If there's a higher need for lithium, more companies will look for it, more will be discovered and more mines will open. Probably prices will go down eventually due to economies of scale and new mining techniques (see Teslas battery day presentation for example)
tonyedgecombe 5y ago
Cobalt is probably a bigger problem.

by skohan 5y ago

Isn't the scarcity of Lithium also a major problem? It's already an expensive commodity, how could it possibly scale to replace all the internal combustion engines even in the US for example?

FridayoLeary 5y ago

Shh. Don't tell anyone.

fogihujy 5y ago

As for the scale of replacement, I think there are many who don't realise how major the shift from ICE to electrical will be. We're talking about large changes in everything from critical national infrastructure, the job market, long-term plans for national defense, the environment, public transport, voter approval ratings, food production, and the list just keeps on going. There's a large number of ifs, buts and maybes involved, and lithium availability is just a small piece of that. All this is supposed to happen within the next 15 years, at least according to quite a few politicians. Increased lithium prices is a good thing since it means that recycling will be financially viable once prices of freshly mined-lithium increases.

slfnflctd 5y ago
> I think there are many who don't realise how major the shift from ICE to electrical will be Could not agree more. With all the things we're talking about using batteries for (electrifying almost all wheeled transport and some aviation, huge amounts of grid storage to smooth out rough solar & wind inputs, grid-independent installations), this is going to be an absolutely massive, sprawling industry. Batteries are likely to be a bottleneck for a long time. We will find ways to reuse and recycle the ones from old cars because there will be enormous incentives to do so. The downside to this is that I'm not expecting battery prices to really drop much for quite a while. They may even go up. These aren't microchips after all; the laws of physics prohibit any significant miniaturization.

kwhitefoot 5y ago

Lithium is not scarce. It is more abundant than lead. "At 20 mg lithium per kg of Earth's crust,[45] lithium is the 25th most abundant element." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium) " lead's relatively high crustal abundance of 14 ppm; it is the 38th most abundant element in the crust." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead) The problem is that easily mined high concentration deposits of lithium are rare so it is expensive to extract. Some of the high price can be simply attributed to high demand occurring after a period of demand low enough that mines were closed in North America. Now that demand is high there is pressure to develop new mines in the US; see, for instance, https://qz.com/1975325/electric-cars-are-fueling-the-uss-lithium-mining-boom/ https://qz.com/1975325/electric-cars-are-fueling-the-uss-lit.... In theory we can extract vast amounts from seawater we just need enough energy. See, for instance, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/seawater-could-provide-nearly-unlimited-amounts-critical-battery-material https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/seawater-could-provi..., https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsmaterialslett.0c00385 https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsmaterialslett.0c00385, https://www.samcotech.com/is-it-possible-to-extract-lithium-from-seawater/ https://www.samcotech.com/is-it-possible-to-extract-lithium-....

audunw 5y ago

The Lithium scarcity scare reminds me of all the peak oil hysteria (which I'll admit I succumbed to as a teenager.. 2009 being doomsday back around 2004 I think). You can't use existing reserves as an indicator. If there's a higher need for lithium, more companies will look for it, more will be discovered and more mines will open. Probably prices will go down eventually due to economies of scale and new mining techniques (see Teslas battery day presentation for example)

tonyedgecombe 5y ago

Cobalt is probably a bigger problem.