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Considering that the vast majority of cases of COVID are asymptomatic, it’s pretty apparent that the viral load needed to infect someone enough that they even e

Considering that the vast majority of cases of COVID are asymptomatic, it’s pretty apparent that the viral load needed to infect someone enough that they even exhibit symptoms, never mind need to be hospitalized, is not easy to achieve. As such, it’s likely even a 30% reduction (which is on the lower end of the range) in the viral load inhaled by someone could drastically reduce the chance of symptomatic COVID. And when you combine 30% reductions for both the receiver and the emitter, it gets much higher.

maxerickson 5y ago
That's not how infections work though. A high initial load can cause the infection to peak higher (because more replication occurs before the immune response), but a lower initial load doesn't necessarily lead to a low peak infection (because replication is exponential with a large exponent).
- chimprich 5y ago
  That doesn't make a lot of sense. Higher initial load means higher severity but a lower initial load doesn't mean lower severity?
  - maxerickson 5y ago
    A lower initial load doesn't guarantee a low severity because the timing of the immune response is such a big factor (due to the large reproduction exponent). As such, it’s likely even a 30% reduction (which is on the lower end of the range) in the viral load inhaled by someone could drastically reduce the chance of symptomatic COVID. is vague enough to not be an over statement, but it probably isn't easy to find much in the way of actual support for it either.
    - chimprich 5y ago
      A lower initial load leading to less severe disease makes intuitive sense (less opportunity for the infection to outpace the immune response) and whilst not proved, a lot of virology experts think it's plausible. There is at least some evidence for it, e.g. a military base study that found less severe disease cases once masks started being worn.

maxerickson 5y ago

That's not how infections work though. A high initial load can cause the infection to peak higher (because more replication occurs before the immune response), but a lower initial load doesn't necessarily lead to a low peak infection (because replication is exponential with a large exponent).

chimprich 5y ago
That doesn't make a lot of sense. Higher initial load means higher severity but a lower initial load doesn't mean lower severity?
- maxerickson 5y ago
  A lower initial load doesn't guarantee a low severity because the timing of the immune response is such a big factor (due to the large reproduction exponent). As such, it’s likely even a 30% reduction (which is on the lower end of the range) in the viral load inhaled by someone could drastically reduce the chance of symptomatic COVID. is vague enough to not be an over statement, but it probably isn't easy to find much in the way of actual support for it either.
  - chimprich 5y ago
    A lower initial load leading to less severe disease makes intuitive sense (less opportunity for the infection to outpace the immune response) and whilst not proved, a lot of virology experts think it's plausible. There is at least some evidence for it, e.g. a military base study that found less severe disease cases once masks started being worn.