I feel there is a "seesaw" effect here though - relatively speaking - where when the conditions are right (peace/stability), the needle tends to head towards on

I feel there is a "seesaw" effect here though - relatively speaking - where when the conditions are right (peace/stability), the needle tends to head towards one direction (decentralization), but when the conditions are different (conflict/instability), the needle often heads the other way (centralization). There's also the thought that decentralization is seen as a threat by centralized players, therefore, even if it could be more effective, it may be prevented or delayed from taking hold.