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Last year people would jokingly say that the headline this year would be "bitcoin crashes to 30k", and that was dismissed as stupidly bullish.

by iabacu 5y ago

ludamad 5y ago
I mean doge is more direct - 35 cents after a major crash. It only just got lifted from 8 cents territory, where a crash was feared
throwaway5752 5y ago
Your comment appears to be the only one in Hacker News history that says, "bitcoin crashes to 30k". Maybe the phrasing was different? It's not good when an asset class drops by 30% in 24 hours.
- reasonabl_human 5y ago
  Don’t take it too literally, the point is YTD is still positive and 1YR charts are ridiculously in the green, beyond any bull’s dream not too long ago
  - cma 5y ago
    There were plenty that predicted over $100K by now.
  - root_axis 5y ago
    You can always construct an arbitrary timeline where the charts are green in order to support that argument. The issue with the huge drop is the insane volatility, there are a lot of people who are freaking out because they bought at 40k+.
- pessimizer 5y ago
  It probably just means that it's not actually liquid at the values that btc people are crowing about. The real question is how much trade volume it took to drop it 30%. Being at $60K just means that a handful of suckers bought for $60K.
  - throwaway5752 5y ago
    It's not something I'd care to speculate over. There's a public ledger, we can find out exactly how many people bought it at every price. I don't have the inclination, but it's something that's precisely knowable.
    - 3np 5y ago
      No, you can’t. Given a transaction on the btc blockchain, how would you determine if actually changed hands (as opposed to internal/self-transfer), and if so, at what valuation? Trades on sidechains or on centralized exchanges also don’t register.
      - wmf 5y ago
        The exchanges do produce a "tape" that is analyzed by various people but you're basically taking their word that it's not fraudulent.
        3np 5y ago
        Right. > There's a public ledger Nothing to do with this. > we can find out exactly how many people bought it at every price. None of them afaik will tell you how many people. Trade data tends to be anonymous and only give you price, amount, and side for each trade. There’s no way to differentiate between 2 people trading back and forth 1 million times vs 2 million people trading once each.
- iabacu 5y ago
  That was not a direct quote on anyone here or elsewhere, more like a sentiment that was around last year. https://twitter.com/shortthebanks/status/1133735039596994560 https://twitter.com/shortthebanks/status/1133735039596994560 https://twitter.com/Joe_wants_BTC/status/1316044080690929666 https://twitter.com/Joe_wants_BTC/status/1316044080690929666 Dropping X% in 24h sounds bad, but without putting it in the context of the asset's historical volatility, sharpe ratio, overall portfolio construction, etc; it looks like a very superficial reading (perhaps just good enough for a headline)

Last year people would jokingly say that the headline this year would be "bitcoin crashes to 30k", and that was dismissed as stupidly bullish.

by iabacu 5y ago

Last year people would jokingly say that the headline this year would be "bitcoin crashes to 30k", and that was dismissed as stupidly bullish.

ludamad 5y ago

I mean doge is more direct - 35 cents after a major crash. It only just got lifted from 8 cents territory, where a crash was feared

throwaway5752 5y ago

Your comment appears to be the only one in Hacker News history that says, "bitcoin crashes to 30k". Maybe the phrasing was different? It's not good when an asset class drops by 30% in 24 hours.

reasonabl_human 5y ago
Don’t take it too literally, the point is YTD is still positive and 1YR charts are ridiculously in the green, beyond any bull’s dream not too long ago
- cma 5y ago
  There were plenty that predicted over $100K by now.
- root_axis 5y ago
  You can always construct an arbitrary timeline where the charts are green in order to support that argument. The issue with the huge drop is the insane volatility, there are a lot of people who are freaking out because they bought at 40k+.
pessimizer 5y ago
It probably just means that it's not actually liquid at the values that btc people are crowing about. The real question is how much trade volume it took to drop it 30%. Being at $60K just means that a handful of suckers bought for $60K.
- throwaway5752 5y ago
  It's not something I'd care to speculate over. There's a public ledger, we can find out exactly how many people bought it at every price. I don't have the inclination, but it's something that's precisely knowable.
  - 3np 5y ago
    No, you can’t. Given a transaction on the btc blockchain, how would you determine if actually changed hands (as opposed to internal/self-transfer), and if so, at what valuation? Trades on sidechains or on centralized exchanges also don’t register.
    - wmf 5y ago
      The exchanges do produce a "tape" that is analyzed by various people but you're basically taking their word that it's not fraudulent.
      - 3np 5y ago
        Right. > There's a public ledger Nothing to do with this. > we can find out exactly how many people bought it at every price. None of them afaik will tell you how many people. Trade data tends to be anonymous and only give you price, amount, and side for each trade. There’s no way to differentiate between 2 people trading back and forth 1 million times vs 2 million people trading once each.
iabacu 5y ago
That was not a direct quote on anyone here or elsewhere, more like a sentiment that was around last year. https://twitter.com/shortthebanks/status/1133735039596994560 https://twitter.com/shortthebanks/status/1133735039596994560 https://twitter.com/Joe_wants_BTC/status/1316044080690929666 https://twitter.com/Joe_wants_BTC/status/1316044080690929666 Dropping X% in 24h sounds bad, but without putting it in the context of the asset's historical volatility, sharpe ratio, overall portfolio construction, etc; it looks like a very superficial reading (perhaps just good enough for a headline)