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Abductive reasoning: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_test https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_test So you have the non-existent assets, bag holding, difficu

Abductive reasoning: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_test https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_test So you have the non-existent assets, bag holding, difficulty getting out and the promise of above average returns. If I put my money into my saving account then I can get out at a clearly stated time, there is no expectation apart from very little interest and I am reasonably sure that the government will bail out the bank if the bank fails. In between there are a spectrum of investment options, property is a good investment asset and you actually have a property made from things like bricks and glass as the 'store of wealth'. Yes it might be difficult to get out if there is a property crash. But it is not a ponzi scheme even if it has some characteristics of one.

celticninja 5y ago
But you can get out of bitcoin at any time by selling it so it fails that test.
- andrewaylett 5y ago
  But selling Bitcoin is _exactly_ an older investor being paid out by a newer investor. IMO it's Bitcoin in combination with Tether that's the actual Ponzi. Unfortunately unlikely to unwind until and unless people start needing to redeem Tether rather than selling it on.
  - 35fbe7d3d5b9 5y ago
    > IMO it's Bitcoin in combination with Tether that's the actual Ponzi. Bingo. The problem is, the big players have no interest in unwinding the scheme. As long as exchanges can wash trade USDT:BTC to drive the inflow of retail investment, things keep going. What'll be interesting is if BTC continues to fall. I think the low $30k is a support level; if it crashes below that, I bet we're going to see more outflow from undercapitalized exchanges and things will adjust hard.
    - inter_netuser 5y ago
      undercapitalized exchanges? you think they are running on fractional reserve?
      - celticninja 5y ago
        That is pretty much the accusation against tether. Most exchanges use it, so rather than the exchanges being knowingly undercapitalized, they are by virtue of using tether. Which is supposed to be 1=1 backed with the $. Which it isnt, and it is not clear how backed it actually is.
        inter_netuser 5y ago
        They are under regular audit by NY AG. Do you not think they'd be jail by now for fraud? They don't disclose details, yes. but neither does your bank, really. Finance tends to be tight-lipped.
        celticninja 5y ago
        They always claimed it was backed 1:1 with the US dollar. Then they paid a fine to the NY AG because it was not backed 1:1, and as part of that they had to produce quarterly reports about how it was backed. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/529eb4e6-796a-4e81-8064-5967bbe3b4d9 https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/529eb4e6-796... It still isn't backed 1:1 based in their own admission. This isn't about being tight lipped, this is willfully misleading customers.
        inter_netuser 5y ago
        that's just 3% in cash. the fed requirement for reserves today is literally zero percent. they are just an offshore bank, none of which have insurance and very different reserve requirements. Hold trilions of dollars. Just clickbait articles farming eyeballs.
eingaeKaiy8ujie 5y ago
There are no promises of returns.

celticninja 5y ago

But you can get out of bitcoin at any time by selling it so it fails that test.

andrewaylett 5y ago
But selling Bitcoin is _exactly_ an older investor being paid out by a newer investor. IMO it's Bitcoin in combination with Tether that's the actual Ponzi. Unfortunately unlikely to unwind until and unless people start needing to redeem Tether rather than selling it on.
- 35fbe7d3d5b9 5y ago
  > IMO it's Bitcoin in combination with Tether that's the actual Ponzi. Bingo. The problem is, the big players have no interest in unwinding the scheme. As long as exchanges can wash trade USDT:BTC to drive the inflow of retail investment, things keep going. What'll be interesting is if BTC continues to fall. I think the low $30k is a support level; if it crashes below that, I bet we're going to see more outflow from undercapitalized exchanges and things will adjust hard.
  - inter_netuser 5y ago
    undercapitalized exchanges? you think they are running on fractional reserve?
    - celticninja 5y ago
      That is pretty much the accusation against tether. Most exchanges use it, so rather than the exchanges being knowingly undercapitalized, they are by virtue of using tether. Which is supposed to be 1=1 backed with the $. Which it isnt, and it is not clear how backed it actually is.
      - inter_netuser 5y ago
        They are under regular audit by NY AG. Do you not think they'd be jail by now for fraud? They don't disclose details, yes. but neither does your bank, really. Finance tends to be tight-lipped.
        celticninja 5y ago
        They always claimed it was backed 1:1 with the US dollar. Then they paid a fine to the NY AG because it was not backed 1:1, and as part of that they had to produce quarterly reports about how it was backed. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/529eb4e6-796a-4e81-8064-5967bbe3b4d9 https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/529eb4e6-796... It still isn't backed 1:1 based in their own admission. This isn't about being tight lipped, this is willfully misleading customers.
        inter_netuser 5y ago
        that's just 3% in cash. the fed requirement for reserves today is literally zero percent. they are just an offshore bank, none of which have insurance and very different reserve requirements. Hold trilions of dollars. Just clickbait articles farming eyeballs.

eingaeKaiy8ujie 5y ago

There are no promises of returns.