4 ms·
People over-estimate the scope of the Drake Equation. fc - "the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their exi
by koheripbal 5y ago
People over-estimate the scope of the Drake Equation.
fc - "the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space"
This term for many people, is near 1. They assume that "detectable" means that WE can detect them with our current level of technology, and/or that "releases" means that it would be something familiar like radio or laser beam transmission.
...but the scope of this assumption is based upon a scant hundred years of human history. The rate of technological and AI advancement (on galactic timescales) is so brief, it is imperceptible. ...and recall that if life exists, the average age of such civilizations would be hundreds of millions to billions of years older than ours.
When we look at popular sci-fi media, one thing that is blatantly obvious is our inability to even imagine what our "civilization" will look like beyond a few hundred years - and often those shows are even superficially wrong.
If AI surpasses us (or integrates us, or exterminates us), our technological existence to "release detectable signals" will be a relative flash in the pan. Remember that AIs aren't limited by our meat lifespans. To them, taking 100 million years to populate the entire galaxy, is a reasonable amount of time. To them, WE may not be the life they are looking for - the emergence of an AI might be of some significance (or perhaps even not), and we are just the slime on the surface of the rock. ...the precursor to what THEY consider THEIR abiogenesis.
...and if AIs encountering one another in space are constructive rather than combative, then the rate of abiogenesis may not be all that relevant. It might simply be like adding another drop of water to an already full glass.