The other thing I believe they are missing is that they are treating the Earth as a single data point for ambiogenesis. The entire Earth's history is hundreds

The other thing I believe they are missing is that they are treating the Earth as a single data point for ambiogenesis. The entire Earth's history is hundreds of millions of data points. Each year that a habitable Earth existed prior to life evolving can be seen as a data point. ... and with life emerging very very near its habitability transition, this reduces the drake error bars considerably. The real limitation of the Drake equation is the duration at which life sends out radio signals - which given technological advancement and AI is probably only a couple hundred years.