> We're extremely unsure how often abiogenesis happens Lacking any credentials on the subject whatsoever, and based on what (little) I know about abiogenesis,

> We're extremely unsure how often abiogenesis happens Lacking any credentials on the subject whatsoever, and based on what (little) I know about abiogenesis, intuition tells me it happens with a probability of 1, if (and here's the key) the conditions are right, and given enough time. (A fun corollary of this is that intelligent life also happens with a probability of 1, under proper conditions [1]). So, we just need to find how many planets have had the right conditions for a long enough period of time. [1] p(abiogenesis)=1 + "evolution is a universal law" => p(intelligent_life)=1