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The effect of these non-news on the price has become a self-fullfiling prophecy. People sell not because of the effect the change is going to have, but because

The effect of these non-news on the price has become a self-fullfiling prophecy. People sell not because of the effect the change is going to have, but because they think people are gonna think the change is going to have an impact. Everyone thinks everyone else is gonna think that. Boom, dump. Smart people get a golden opportunity to buy cheap while dumb people panic sell.

tluyben2 5y ago
> Smart people get a golden opportunity to buy cheap while dumb people panic sell. Except it's so volatile that you don't know when it's cheap. It's not cheap now; it's some 40-50% above cheap, so let's see how many 'smart' people there really are. I'll wait a bit for actual cheap ETH.
- inter_netuser 5y ago
  it's here now: https://cheapeth.org/ https://cheapeth.org/
- young_unixer 5y ago
  > Except it's so volatile that you don't know when it's cheap. You do know. You just have to look at the logarithmic regression bands and fair value models. Granted, these are useless if you intend to day trade, because prices are absolutely unpredictable on the short term, but they're useful if you want to hold for more than 5 months, because prices in the mid and long term are more predictable than you'd think. The current price is not really 'cheap' from a technical perspective, but its cheap if you consider that the market cycle isn't over yet, so in the next 7 months the probability that bitcoin is going above 70k is so big that it's more or less a safe bet at this point. The only thing that could stop Bitcoin from getting over 70k between today and January 1st 2022 is a global economic crisis of the magnitude of the 2008 crisis. IMO, buying today and holding for 7 months is the best think you could do right now. (I'm talking about Bitcoin, because yes, ETH isn't cheap right now. No one knows if the ETH/BTC valuation is going to hold as it is right now, I wouldn't buy ETH today)

tluyben2 5y ago

> Smart people get a golden opportunity to buy cheap while dumb people panic sell. Except it's so volatile that you don't know when it's cheap. It's not cheap now; it's some 40-50% above cheap, so let's see how many 'smart' people there really are. I'll wait a bit for actual cheap ETH.

inter_netuser 5y ago
it's here now: https://cheapeth.org/ https://cheapeth.org/
young_unixer 5y ago
> Except it's so volatile that you don't know when it's cheap. You do know. You just have to look at the logarithmic regression bands and fair value models. Granted, these are useless if you intend to day trade, because prices are absolutely unpredictable on the short term, but they're useful if you want to hold for more than 5 months, because prices in the mid and long term are more predictable than you'd think. The current price is not really 'cheap' from a technical perspective, but its cheap if you consider that the market cycle isn't over yet, so in the next 7 months the probability that bitcoin is going above 70k is so big that it's more or less a safe bet at this point. The only thing that could stop Bitcoin from getting over 70k between today and January 1st 2022 is a global economic crisis of the magnitude of the 2008 crisis. IMO, buying today and holding for 7 months is the best think you could do right now. (I'm talking about Bitcoin, because yes, ETH isn't cheap right now. No one knows if the ETH/BTC valuation is going to hold as it is right now, I wouldn't buy ETH today)