You'll be surprised how much your predictions improve if you stop for a moment to do some back of the napkin calculations. Lots of overly optimistic or pessimis

You'll be surprised how much your predictions improve if you stop for a moment to do some back of the napkin calculations. Lots of overly optimistic or pessimistic news out there just to grab your attention. Having an edge in prediction and BS detection compared to the average Joe is an important life skill IMO.