> "a 500k valuation was the most likely outcome for the profiles of entrepreneurs you entered" (emphasis added) Exactly my point. Given 100 startups with tha

> "a 500k valuation was the most likely outcome for the profiles of entrepreneurs you entered" (emphasis added) Exactly my point. Given 100 startups with that profile, you can say with some confidence that the average outcome will be 500k. But you're ignoring the distribution! It's very risky to make the bet that one individual startup will be worth 500k. I'm not saying you should make better predictions. I'm saying that it's a very risky game to make mathematical predictions on individual valuations at all. Most machine-learned models aren't better than humans, they're just much, much faster than humans. It's a bold bet you're making if you're trying to be better than humans at predicting valuations. Models don't allow for intangibles like "killer sales ability" that may not be reflected in your degree or past job, but that a VC can pick up on 5 minutes after meeting you. See my reply to Sam's post here: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=272015 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=272015 Edit: Someone put in the relevant numbers for WebVan or Pets.com. I think those two failed within ~3 years.