4 ms·
The "why" might be more of a philosophical question than a scientific question, but in terms of the science, I don't think it's hard to reason about. Ultimatel
by jawns 5y ago
The "why" might be more of a philosophical question than a scientific question, but in terms of the science, I don't think it's hard to reason about.
Ultimately, the frequency at which abiogenesis occurs is 1/N.
It may be the case that N is small enough that the universe is positively teaming with life.
Or it may be the case that N is so unfathomably large that the odds are exceedingly small that abiogenesis occurs even once during the lifetime of the universe, and the universe just happened to get lucky.
But until we have some other confirmed, observed instance of abiogenesis, we can say nothing about N other than its lower bound is pretty large.
And I don't think we can pile probabilities on top of probabilities to say, "Well, we have no way of knowing how large N is, so I'm going to just bet that it's medium-sized."