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I have no clue about batteries or hydrogen tanks. But I'm always amused to think that posters on HN give more credence to their back-of-the-napkin calculations

I have no clue about batteries or hydrogen tanks. But I'm always amused to think that posters on HN give more credence to their back-of-the-napkin calculations over opinions of, say, folks at Toshiba, Volvo or Daimler.

daniellarusso 5y ago
Are these humans mutually exclusive?
SigmundA 5y ago
Yes I always like to do my own math it has sniffed out the BS many a time from the likes of Tesla, Nikola and so on. Not always right, but amazing how many times theirs is wrong especially if marketing something. You should alway try to understand the math / science and make your own judgements rather to falling for arguments from authority. This isn't always feasible but I think most people can do enough to weed out the snake oil to a much better degree than we seem to be doing as a society now. Note this will also make you a better engineer / programmer in my experience.
- nick_kline 5y ago
  Do you see Tesla as a snakeoil company today when it comes to their batteries, drivetrain, range, reliability? I wouldn't put Nikola and Tesla in the same categories. Tesla has one serious issue imho that they can only fix with refunds of the cost, that their auto-driving cars probably won't get there in the next 5+ years, so all the people that paid up to 10k for that will have to get some compensation.
  - SigmundA 5y ago
    No I don't however I was much more skeptical of them in the past and also the math still lets me know Elon's timelines are lets say "optimistic", however the math also told me they where not completely full of it vs Nikola which is a complete sham. For instance the Semi being announced in 2017 I said no way, but their range numbers where not outlandish, they just conveniently left off weight numbers for the tractor and cost of the battery seemed to high at the time. What I missed was how quickly battery cost are coming down and energy density going up, however they still haven't delivered a tractor yet so... Tesla has a real tech lead, not sure if they can keep it and they are way over valued stock wise. Nikola complete BS.
colordrops 5y ago
The people on HN are the same people that work at Toshiba, Volvo and Daimler. Many of them are more accomplished and you'll find sub-par engineers making bad decisions at any company.
TheSpiceIsLife 5y ago
Math, physics, and chemistry, don't discriminate. The Emperor and the downtrodden, the Ivey League and the community college, you'll find the same mathematics wherever you go. Some may have an advantage in innovation or inspiration, but it should he fair trivial for any sufficiently motivated individual to check the numbers.
bombcar 5y ago
The companies are not entirely worried about the total results as they have other aspects to deal with (in fact, you'll sometimes find companies doing things they personally think are silly because "everyone" in the industry is doing it, and they need to be able to check off the box for the Board - example: "Why aren't we doing anything with this blockchain stuff"). They also have large resources and are willing to experiment in things (especially if there are incentives around it from government, etc) - and even if it fails entirely they'll likely get useful and actionable data and results that still can help the company.
valuearb 5y ago
Smart engineers chose Hydrogen as the first stage fuel fuel the Space Shuttle, and it turned out to be a terrible choice. H2 offered the highest ISP, ie energy per fuel mass, and originally they wanted the Shuttle to be a single stage to orbit vehicle. But Hydrogen also added larger, much heavier tanks and engines didn’t have enough thrust for that. So they had to add large Solid Rocket Boosters to get off the pad. And all they additional dry mass meant the higher ISP of H2 was wasted. And now the SLS is repeating those mistakes, not because engineers didn’t learn those lessons, but because politicians require them to repeat them. Engineers recommending Hydrogen for cars are influenced by regulatory requirements and benefits, and politically by company objectives. If your CEO says Hydrogen is important to use because our government and regulators say it is, you as an engineer will find a way to make the best of a bad choice.
- tweetle_beetle 5y ago
  I have no horse in this race, but the pros and cons of a technology that is aiming to replace an incumbent that has lasted a century across the globe with millions (billions?) of users and units produced have to be evaluated as a complete system and in many more ways than pure engineering calculations. Fuel production, distribution networks, behavioural science, town planning, etc. were of little to no interest to the scientists you deride, but need to be considered too.
Retric 5y ago
I once called BS on a VR article written by John Carmack on HN and he clarified the article. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17348638 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17348638 Which umm shows you never know who’s posting here.
dkarras 5y ago
You'll be surprised how much your predictions improve if you stop for a moment to do some back of the napkin calculations. Lots of overly optimistic or pessimistic news out there just to grab your attention. Having an edge in prediction and BS detection compared to the average Joe is an important life skill IMO.

daniellarusso 5y ago

Are these humans mutually exclusive?

SigmundA 5y ago

Yes I always like to do my own math it has sniffed out the BS many a time from the likes of Tesla, Nikola and so on. Not always right, but amazing how many times theirs is wrong especially if marketing something. You should alway try to understand the math / science and make your own judgements rather to falling for arguments from authority. This isn't always feasible but I think most people can do enough to weed out the snake oil to a much better degree than we seem to be doing as a society now. Note this will also make you a better engineer / programmer in my experience.

nick_kline 5y ago
Do you see Tesla as a snakeoil company today when it comes to their batteries, drivetrain, range, reliability? I wouldn't put Nikola and Tesla in the same categories. Tesla has one serious issue imho that they can only fix with refunds of the cost, that their auto-driving cars probably won't get there in the next 5+ years, so all the people that paid up to 10k for that will have to get some compensation.
- SigmundA 5y ago
  No I don't however I was much more skeptical of them in the past and also the math still lets me know Elon's timelines are lets say "optimistic", however the math also told me they where not completely full of it vs Nikola which is a complete sham. For instance the Semi being announced in 2017 I said no way, but their range numbers where not outlandish, they just conveniently left off weight numbers for the tractor and cost of the battery seemed to high at the time. What I missed was how quickly battery cost are coming down and energy density going up, however they still haven't delivered a tractor yet so... Tesla has a real tech lead, not sure if they can keep it and they are way over valued stock wise. Nikola complete BS.

colordrops 5y ago

The people on HN are the same people that work at Toshiba, Volvo and Daimler. Many of them are more accomplished and you'll find sub-par engineers making bad decisions at any company.

TheSpiceIsLife 5y ago

Math, physics, and chemistry, don't discriminate. The Emperor and the downtrodden, the Ivey League and the community college, you'll find the same mathematics wherever you go. Some may have an advantage in innovation or inspiration, but it should he fair trivial for any sufficiently motivated individual to check the numbers.

bombcar 5y ago

The companies are not entirely worried about the total results as they have other aspects to deal with (in fact, you'll sometimes find companies doing things they personally think are silly because "everyone" in the industry is doing it, and they need to be able to check off the box for the Board - example: "Why aren't we doing anything with this blockchain stuff"). They also have large resources and are willing to experiment in things (especially if there are incentives around it from government, etc) - and even if it fails entirely they'll likely get useful and actionable data and results that still can help the company.

valuearb 5y ago

Smart engineers chose Hydrogen as the first stage fuel fuel the Space Shuttle, and it turned out to be a terrible choice. H2 offered the highest ISP, ie energy per fuel mass, and originally they wanted the Shuttle to be a single stage to orbit vehicle. But Hydrogen also added larger, much heavier tanks and engines didn’t have enough thrust for that. So they had to add large Solid Rocket Boosters to get off the pad. And all they additional dry mass meant the higher ISP of H2 was wasted. And now the SLS is repeating those mistakes, not because engineers didn’t learn those lessons, but because politicians require them to repeat them. Engineers recommending Hydrogen for cars are influenced by regulatory requirements and benefits, and politically by company objectives. If your CEO says Hydrogen is important to use because our government and regulators say it is, you as an engineer will find a way to make the best of a bad choice.

tweetle_beetle 5y ago
I have no horse in this race, but the pros and cons of a technology that is aiming to replace an incumbent that has lasted a century across the globe with millions (billions?) of users and units produced have to be evaluated as a complete system and in many more ways than pure engineering calculations. Fuel production, distribution networks, behavioural science, town planning, etc. were of little to no interest to the scientists you deride, but need to be considered too.

Retric 5y ago

I once called BS on a VR article written by John Carmack on HN and he clarified the article. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17348638 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17348638 Which umm shows you never know who’s posting here.

dkarras 5y ago

You'll be surprised how much your predictions improve if you stop for a moment to do some back of the napkin calculations. Lots of overly optimistic or pessimistic news out there just to grab your attention. Having an edge in prediction and BS detection compared to the average Joe is an important life skill IMO.