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That may be true, and I agree that possibility is underplayed. But if that's what happened, isn't the correct policy action the same as what those concerned abo

That may be true, and I agree that possibility is underplayed. But if that's what happened, isn't the correct policy action the same as what those concerned about lab origin are advocating (i.e., to push for an investigation of the origins that's not fully dependent on the CCP's honesty)? The danger to humanity exists regardless of whether they're concealing reckless science that causes pandemics or reckless agriculture that causes pandemics.

lamontcg 5y ago
They know an investigation of the origins pins it on China. With a zoonotic source China is still at fault. As an authoritarian regime that outcome undermines them. A bunch of Americans angry about the lab leak theory works fine for them, that just enhances the bunker mentality for their own domestic consumption. And they're more worried about domestic politics now and spinning propaganda than they are about preventing the next pandemic.
- tripletao 5y ago
  I agree that the CCP's incentives are to oppose such an investigation regardless of the true origin, especially after they've spent months digging in to that position. But if our goal is to reduce the risk of future pandemics, then do you have a better idea for a policy action to achieve that?
  - kelnos 5y ago
    I don't think there is one. Determining the source requires cooperation from the Chinese government, and there is no way that cooperation can be forced if they don't want to give it. And even if there was, there's no guarantee that enough evidence or information remains after a year and a half for us to prove anything.
    - joyeuse6701 5y ago
      There is. Assume it’s either zoonotic or lab, and then put in new protocols to address both. We aren’t resource constrained on this.
  - lamontcg 5y ago
    Yes. That's why I'm pointing it out. People get Big Mad at China over the lab leak theory. I'm quite annoyed at China over deflecting investigation of the zoonotic origins because we're risking SARS-3 more or less. But the people yelling about the lab leak hypothesis are also useful idiots in deflecting investigation of the zoonotic origins, so I'm equally annoyed at them. It wasn't a lab leak. We aren't going to do anything about it. Something like it will probably happen again. I'm just stockpiling some nice N95s once the prices crash in a year or three. The human race, in general, is too collectively stupid and too easily manipulated to stop this from happening again (and everyone in this thread is part of the problem). [ And yes, everyone in this thread angry at the CCP I view as equally as bad as the CCP in being useless at preventing learning anything that'll prevent a future pandemic. A pox on both your houses. ]
    - tripletao 5y ago
      So what policy action are you proposing? In other words, what do you think voters should push the American government (or whatever government you elect, assuming you live in a democracy) to do? If you believe that a lab accident is so unlikely as to not be worth investigating further, then your position is rapidly becoming as fringe as the opposite was four months ago--you disagree here with Tedros, Redfield, Baltimore, Baric, any quote I've seen anywhere from the intelligence community, and many other big names. But if that's your sincere belief, why wouldn't you push for a forensic investigation of natural origin (e.g., allowing scientists not permanently under the CCP's physical control to collect samples from agricultural sites, and ship them out under seal for testing outside China)? Finally, just for my curiosity: Do you agree with the consensus that the 1977 flu pandemic (which killed ~700k people) was probably a lab accident? Or do you think that one was definitely natural too?
    - thunderbong 5y ago
      This is the first time I'm seeing the word 'pox' being used by someone! Till now I've only seen it being used in books!
- rich_sasha 5y ago
  > With a zoonotic source China is still at fault. Is it really though? Is that then not a "shit happens" case? No one seems to be particularly angry at how SARS started, or Ebola in Africa etc. It just seems understood that often humans and animals mingle closely together, and then yes, bad things happen, but it's just part of doing business. Anyway China is implying already that this is what's going on, so I can't see what they would have to lose by confirming it.
kelnos 5y ago
I think the reason is that the Chinese government doesn't care as much about the danger to humanity as they do about saving face and maintaining their power. They may even know definitively where it came from, whether it was a lab with lax safety practices or from reckless agriculture. And they can fix either or both of those things, quietly, while still pushing the narrative internally that the virus didn't come from China at all.
- tripletao 5y ago
  I agree, and I'm interested to watch e.g. whether the WIV continues to publish risky research. My private guess is a paper or two for the sake of appearances, but a much lower volume of sampling and lab manipulation of novel pathogens than before--the CCP doesn't want to lose face, but it doesn't want another pandemic either. It sure would be nice to know what happened, though, both for the sake of human knowledge and to inform similar research (or agriculture, or whatever else might have caused this) outside China. I don't what it's possible to learn given the delay and CCP's obstruction, but it seems defeatist not to try.

lamontcg 5y ago

They know an investigation of the origins pins it on China. With a zoonotic source China is still at fault. As an authoritarian regime that outcome undermines them. A bunch of Americans angry about the lab leak theory works fine for them, that just enhances the bunker mentality for their own domestic consumption. And they're more worried about domestic politics now and spinning propaganda than they are about preventing the next pandemic.

tripletao 5y ago
I agree that the CCP's incentives are to oppose such an investigation regardless of the true origin, especially after they've spent months digging in to that position. But if our goal is to reduce the risk of future pandemics, then do you have a better idea for a policy action to achieve that?
- kelnos 5y ago
  I don't think there is one. Determining the source requires cooperation from the Chinese government, and there is no way that cooperation can be forced if they don't want to give it. And even if there was, there's no guarantee that enough evidence or information remains after a year and a half for us to prove anything.
  - joyeuse6701 5y ago
    There is. Assume it’s either zoonotic or lab, and then put in new protocols to address both. We aren’t resource constrained on this.
- lamontcg 5y ago
  Yes. That's why I'm pointing it out. People get Big Mad at China over the lab leak theory. I'm quite annoyed at China over deflecting investigation of the zoonotic origins because we're risking SARS-3 more or less. But the people yelling about the lab leak hypothesis are also useful idiots in deflecting investigation of the zoonotic origins, so I'm equally annoyed at them. It wasn't a lab leak. We aren't going to do anything about it. Something like it will probably happen again. I'm just stockpiling some nice N95s once the prices crash in a year or three. The human race, in general, is too collectively stupid and too easily manipulated to stop this from happening again (and everyone in this thread is part of the problem). [ And yes, everyone in this thread angry at the CCP I view as equally as bad as the CCP in being useless at preventing learning anything that'll prevent a future pandemic. A pox on both your houses. ]
  - tripletao 5y ago
    So what policy action are you proposing? In other words, what do you think voters should push the American government (or whatever government you elect, assuming you live in a democracy) to do? If you believe that a lab accident is so unlikely as to not be worth investigating further, then your position is rapidly becoming as fringe as the opposite was four months ago--you disagree here with Tedros, Redfield, Baltimore, Baric, any quote I've seen anywhere from the intelligence community, and many other big names. But if that's your sincere belief, why wouldn't you push for a forensic investigation of natural origin (e.g., allowing scientists not permanently under the CCP's physical control to collect samples from agricultural sites, and ship them out under seal for testing outside China)? Finally, just for my curiosity: Do you agree with the consensus that the 1977 flu pandemic (which killed ~700k people) was probably a lab accident? Or do you think that one was definitely natural too?
  - thunderbong 5y ago
    This is the first time I'm seeing the word 'pox' being used by someone! Till now I've only seen it being used in books!
rich_sasha 5y ago
> With a zoonotic source China is still at fault. Is it really though? Is that then not a "shit happens" case? No one seems to be particularly angry at how SARS started, or Ebola in Africa etc. It just seems understood that often humans and animals mingle closely together, and then yes, bad things happen, but it's just part of doing business. Anyway China is implying already that this is what's going on, so I can't see what they would have to lose by confirming it.

kelnos 5y ago

I think the reason is that the Chinese government doesn't care as much about the danger to humanity as they do about saving face and maintaining their power. They may even know definitively where it came from, whether it was a lab with lax safety practices or from reckless agriculture. And they can fix either or both of those things, quietly, while still pushing the narrative internally that the virus didn't come from China at all.

tripletao 5y ago
I agree, and I'm interested to watch e.g. whether the WIV continues to publish risky research. My private guess is a paper or two for the sake of appearances, but a much lower volume of sampling and lab manipulation of novel pathogens than before--the CCP doesn't want to lose face, but it doesn't want another pandemic either. It sure would be nice to know what happened, though, both for the sake of human knowledge and to inform similar research (or agriculture, or whatever else might have caused this) outside China. I don't what it's possible to learn given the delay and CCP's obstruction, but it seems defeatist not to try.