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> What really makes me think though is the way China is being uncooperative This reminds me exactly of the same kind of arguments made about Saddam Hussein whe
by lamontcg 5y ago
> What really makes me think though is the way China is being uncooperative
This reminds me exactly of the same kind of arguments made about Saddam Hussein when it came to WMDs before 2003.
It turned out that Hussein was playing to the domestic audience, not the USA. It made sense to him to stand up to the weapons inspections for domestic political consumption. Everyone in the USA, including the CIA thought he MUST have been actually hiding something, but he wasn't, it was all just bluster.
Similarly here, its likely all for domestic consumption. They just don't want to admit it came from China, period. They've been pushing the idea that it was spreading like wildfire in Italy in Sept/Oct 2019 (via some scientific article that never should have been published). They're happy to make the argument entirely about the lab leak theory because then they can rely on the scientific community to debunk that -- and then all that remains for domestic consumption is their ideas that it came to China in imported food.
And here's the kicker which is that if this doesn't make sense to you, it doesn't have to. They don't give one sloppy fuck about what you think. They care about what 1.4 billion Chinese people think. If you're convinced it is a lab leak they just don't care and that works fine for them. They can debunk that internally and push the idea that China is the victim.
And the zoontic theory doesn't help them as much, then they have to explain why it happened again after SARS-1 in 2003, and they might have to actually do something about a lot of the animal farming practices in China, and could lose face for domestic political consumption. Bunker mentality is better for authoritarian regimes than self-reflection about mistakes.
(See also Jose Mourinho's player management style)
- tripletao 5y agoThat may be true, and I agree that possibility is underplayed. But if that's what happened, isn't the correct policy action the same as what those concerned about lab origin are advocating (i.e., to push for an investigation of the origins that's not fully dependent on the CCP's honesty)? The danger to humanity exists regardless of whether they're concealing reckless science that causes pandemics or reckless agriculture that causes pandemics.
- lamontcg 5y agoThey know an investigation of the origins pins it on China. With a zoonotic source China is still at fault. As an authoritarian regime that outcome undermines them. A bunch of Americans angry about the lab leak theory works fine for them, that just enhances the bunker mentality for their own domestic consumption. And they're more worried about domestic politics now and spinning propaganda than they are about preventing the next pandemic.
- tripletao 5y agoI agree that the CCP's incentives are to oppose such an investigation regardless of the true origin, especially after they've spent months digging in to that position. But if our goal is to reduce the risk of future pandemics, then do you have a better idea for a policy action to achieve that?
- kelnos 5y agoI don't think there is one. Determining the source requires cooperation from the Chinese government, and there is no way that cooperation can be forced if they don't want to give it. And even if there was, there's no guarantee that enough evidence or information remains after a year and a half for us to prove anything.
- joyeuse6701 5y agoThere is. Assume it’s either zoonotic or lab, and then put in new protocols to address both. We aren’t resource constrained on this.
- lamontcg 5y agoYes. That's why I'm pointing it out. People get Big Mad at China over the lab leak theory. I'm quite annoyed at China over deflecting investigation of the zoonotic origins because we're risking SARS-3 more or less. But the people yelling about the lab leak hypothesis are also useful idiots in deflecting investigation of the zoonotic origins, so I'm equally annoyed at them. It wasn't a lab leak. We aren't going to do anything about it. Something like it will probably happen again. I'm just stockpiling some nice N95s once the prices crash in a year or three. The human race, in general, is too collectively stupid and too easily manipulated to stop this from happening again (and everyone in this thread is part of the problem). [ And yes, everyone in this thread angry at the CCP I view as equally as bad as the CCP in being useless at preventing learning anything that'll prevent a future pandemic. A pox on both your houses. ]