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I would believe that Covid started elsewhere in China before believing in started in a wet market in Wuhan. It is extremely unlikely to start there given that i

I would believe that Covid started elsewhere in China before believing in started in a wet market in Wuhan. It is extremely unlikely to start there given that isn't where the bats in China are or where new corona viruses are. In fact, if you read any research that had been published by the WIV on coronoaviruses pre-2020 they all start by talking about expeditions to collect bat droppings 1500 miles away.

hungryforcodes 5y ago
So one bad flew 2400 kilometers, bit some people in Wuhan, then died? It started in Wuhan spontaneously. There are no intermediary COVID19 infections in a migration trail of any kind from those bat reservoirs in Yunnan to Hubei.
- newacct583 5y ago
  > There are no intermediary COVID19 infections in a migration trail of any kind from those bat reservoirs in Yunnan to Hubei. Can you cite a few other diseases where the evolution was traced back in multiple species across that kind of distance? Where did ebola come from? MERS? At best you get the immediate host, or as with covid a somewhat close relative. You're demanding proof that simply doesn't exist for any other disease and then citing the absence of that impossible proof as evidence for your conspiracy theory that has even less evidence in support. I mean, fine, we only have that one bat in Yunaan. OK. Fair point. You have zero samples from that lab.
  - handmodel 5y ago
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29669833/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29669833/ This is a paper from 2018 where they went into caves in southern China and took 1000+ samples of droppings from bats back to Wuhan and found new strains of coronaviruses. If they did this in late 2019 of course they wouldn't have published that after a (theoretical) leak...an absence of a sample means nothing. In fact, if anything the fact they didn't publish a similar report is more telling. If you look at pre Covid-19 reports on bat coronoaviruses in China you'll see the large majority of such bats are in Southern China - very far away from Wuhan. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6466186/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6466186/
    - newacct583 5y ago
      > of course they wouldn't have published that after a (theoretical) leak Twisting "absence of evidence" into "evidence" by alleging a coverup is a classic conspiracy theory tactic. You're literally arguing for a conspiracy by asserting the conspiracy as a prior.
      - handmodel 5y ago
        I don't think that applies here. If you are doing a Bayesian analysis on if a suspect committed a crime at 2:00 AM and they told you they were sleeping then - does this tell you any new information? I would say without outside evidence it shouldn't update your probability on the subject. If they truly were sleeping they are going to say they were sleeping. If they were committing the act they are going to say they were sleeping. Saying "the fact the suspect said they were sleeping at 2:00 AM is what they would say if they were committing the act" is not the same as saying "the fact that the suspect said they were sleeping at 2:00 AM is proof they committed the act"

hungryforcodes 5y ago

So one bad flew 2400 kilometers, bit some people in Wuhan, then died? It started in Wuhan spontaneously. There are no intermediary COVID19 infections in a migration trail of any kind from those bat reservoirs in Yunnan to Hubei.

newacct583 5y ago
> There are no intermediary COVID19 infections in a migration trail of any kind from those bat reservoirs in Yunnan to Hubei. Can you cite a few other diseases where the evolution was traced back in multiple species across that kind of distance? Where did ebola come from? MERS? At best you get the immediate host, or as with covid a somewhat close relative. You're demanding proof that simply doesn't exist for any other disease and then citing the absence of that impossible proof as evidence for your conspiracy theory that has even less evidence in support. I mean, fine, we only have that one bat in Yunaan. OK. Fair point. You have zero samples from that lab.
- handmodel 5y ago
  https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29669833/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29669833/ This is a paper from 2018 where they went into caves in southern China and took 1000+ samples of droppings from bats back to Wuhan and found new strains of coronaviruses. If they did this in late 2019 of course they wouldn't have published that after a (theoretical) leak...an absence of a sample means nothing. In fact, if anything the fact they didn't publish a similar report is more telling. If you look at pre Covid-19 reports on bat coronoaviruses in China you'll see the large majority of such bats are in Southern China - very far away from Wuhan. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6466186/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6466186/
  - newacct583 5y ago
    > of course they wouldn't have published that after a (theoretical) leak Twisting "absence of evidence" into "evidence" by alleging a coverup is a classic conspiracy theory tactic. You're literally arguing for a conspiracy by asserting the conspiracy as a prior.
    - handmodel 5y ago
      I don't think that applies here. If you are doing a Bayesian analysis on if a suspect committed a crime at 2:00 AM and they told you they were sleeping then - does this tell you any new information? I would say without outside evidence it shouldn't update your probability on the subject. If they truly were sleeping they are going to say they were sleeping. If they were committing the act they are going to say they were sleeping. Saying "the fact the suspect said they were sleeping at 2:00 AM is what they would say if they were committing the act" is not the same as saying "the fact that the suspect said they were sleeping at 2:00 AM is proof they committed the act"