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>>"Has anyone analyzed this with a Bayesian statistical approach?" - YES. And they give lab leak theory over 80% likelihood https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis
by rllearneratwork 5y ago
>>"Has anyone analyzed this with a Bayesian statistical approach?"
- YES. And they give lab leak theory over 80% likelihood
https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COVID-19-SARS-CoV-2 https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COV...
- mhh__ 5y agoHow can you assign a probability/likelihood to vague statements like "There is some weak evidence regarding lax security and procedures at the Wuhan Institute of Virology"
- fastball 5y agoProbabilities determined from Bayesian analyses like this one aren't really intended to be perfect – it is more of an exercise to help you think through the various different possibilities in a more structured way. In other words, Bayesian estimates should always be taken as relative to all other related estimated outcomes rather than as absolutes in isolation (even thought you are arriving at a specific "probability").
- mhh__ 5y agoI am aware. This is why I find it particularly grating if you even pretend it's not subjective.