8 ms·

There's basically no evidence either way, although the outbreak being in a city with a class 4 bio lab actively studying sars viruses does on the surface seem t

by eloff 5y ago

There's basically no evidence either way, although the outbreak being in a city with a class 4 bio lab actively studying sars viruses does on the surface seem to make the lab leak more probable. Bit of a coincidence. What really makes me think though is the way China is being uncooperative. You'd think if they were innocent they wouldn't need to limit access to data and prevent investigation of the Wuhan lab. Maybe that's just in their nature as a totalitarian regime, but it's not doing them any favors here.

ddingus 5y ago
Another way to get at a similar disconcerting place: Where is the animal population that harbored the virus?
- lamontcg 5y ago
  Same problem with SARS-CoV-1. The Bat SL-CoV-WIV1 virus that is closest related to that is also from Horseshoe bats in Yunnan. The SARS-CoV-1 outbreak in humans was >700 miles away in Guangdong. The virus may or may not have used an intermediate animal like civets to jump to humans. We've seen this happen before and we know there was no lab leak involved.
  - ddingus 5y ago
    The lack of cooperation complicates all of this, which was my primary point.
    - AstralStorm 5y ago
      The problem is, there is nothing to cooperate in. Any source or fact given by Chinese government or scientists will not be trusted.
      - ddingus 5y ago
        It is necessary for global involvement. Direct research, investigations, data collection, the works. Being open enough to understand what is actual is the cooperation.
danenania 5y ago
Has anyone analyzed this with a Bayesian statistical approach? Considering that a zoonotic transfer could happen in a very large number of places on earth, I would imagine that the odds of an outbreak in any particular city would be quite small? With that in mind, how many virology labs are there doing gain-of-function research on coronaviruses? How many have had safety issues in the past? How many times have pathogens escaped? Also, how many zoonotic transfers have there been where no infected specimens of the host species could be found after a concerted investigation? It seems like one should be able to come up with reasonable estimates for most of these numbers with some digging. I'm not qualified to make conclusions one way or the other, but it feels to me like this calculation would weight heavily toward a lab leak. To a layman's eyes, it feels a bit like we've got a lung cancer patient who just so happened to be a pack-a-day smoker, and everyone's searching furiously for any explanation that isn't the cigarettes.
- rllearneratwork 5y ago
  >>"Has anyone analyzed this with a Bayesian statistical approach?" - YES. And they give lab leak theory over 80% likelihood https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COVID-19-SARS-CoV-2 https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COV...
  - mhh__ 5y ago
    How can you assign a probability/likelihood to vague statements like "There is some weak evidence regarding lax security and procedures at the Wuhan Institute of Virology"
    - fastball 5y ago
      Probabilities determined from Bayesian analyses like this one aren't really intended to be perfect – it is more of an exercise to help you think through the various different possibilities in a more structured way. In other words, Bayesian estimates should always be taken as relative to all other related estimated outcomes rather than as absolutes in isolation (even thought you are arriving at a specific "probability").
weezin 5y ago
People are absolutely shocked when I tell them what China reports as their numbers for testing and cases.
- HKH2 5y ago
  Given how much control they have, and how much of a priority saving face is, governance in China is rife with perverse incentives.
tonfreed 5y ago
May not have come from the lab, but entirely possible they were working on bioweapons or something else untoward in Wuhan. Would explain why they don't want inspectors poking around We won't know until someone forces open those records, I guess.
lamontcg 5y ago
> What really makes me think though is the way China is being uncooperative This reminds me exactly of the same kind of arguments made about Saddam Hussein when it came to WMDs before 2003. It turned out that Hussein was playing to the domestic audience, not the USA. It made sense to him to stand up to the weapons inspections for domestic political consumption. Everyone in the USA, including the CIA thought he MUST have been actually hiding something, but he wasn't, it was all just bluster. Similarly here, its likely all for domestic consumption. They just don't want to admit it came from China, period. They've been pushing the idea that it was spreading like wildfire in Italy in Sept/Oct 2019 (via some scientific article that never should have been published). They're happy to make the argument entirely about the lab leak theory because then they can rely on the scientific community to debunk that -- and then all that remains for domestic consumption is their ideas that it came to China in imported food. And here's the kicker which is that if this doesn't make sense to you, it doesn't have to. They don't give one sloppy fuck about what you think. They care about what 1.4 billion Chinese people think. If you're convinced it is a lab leak they just don't care and that works fine for them. They can debunk that internally and push the idea that China is the victim. And the zoontic theory doesn't help them as much, then they have to explain why it happened again after SARS-1 in 2003, and they might have to actually do something about a lot of the animal farming practices in China, and could lose face for domestic political consumption. Bunker mentality is better for authoritarian regimes than self-reflection about mistakes. (See also Jose Mourinho's player management style)
- tripletao 5y ago
  That may be true, and I agree that possibility is underplayed. But if that's what happened, isn't the correct policy action the same as what those concerned about lab origin are advocating (i.e., to push for an investigation of the origins that's not fully dependent on the CCP's honesty)? The danger to humanity exists regardless of whether they're concealing reckless science that causes pandemics or reckless agriculture that causes pandemics.
  - lamontcg 5y ago
    They know an investigation of the origins pins it on China. With a zoonotic source China is still at fault. As an authoritarian regime that outcome undermines them. A bunch of Americans angry about the lab leak theory works fine for them, that just enhances the bunker mentality for their own domestic consumption. And they're more worried about domestic politics now and spinning propaganda than they are about preventing the next pandemic.
Redoubts 5y ago
> if they were innocent they wouldn't need to limit access Never talk to the police
thu2111 5y ago
There's basically no evidence either way The article this article is about (Nick Wade's article) is built around the opposite claim, that there actually is by now quite a lot of evidence and it supports the lab leak theory. And in particular, there is no evidence of natural animal-to-human transmission that could balance out the preponderance of evidence on the other side.
dariusj18 5y ago
There are plenty of reasons that any State wouldn't cooperate or seem to be with an external investigation. If I were China I would certainly worry about a frameup or selective leaking of things to sway the public. There is very little motive for China to do anything given the risks.

by eloff 5y ago

ddingus 5y ago

Another way to get at a similar disconcerting place: Where is the animal population that harbored the virus?

lamontcg 5y ago
Same problem with SARS-CoV-1. The Bat SL-CoV-WIV1 virus that is closest related to that is also from Horseshoe bats in Yunnan. The SARS-CoV-1 outbreak in humans was >700 miles away in Guangdong. The virus may or may not have used an intermediate animal like civets to jump to humans. We've seen this happen before and we know there was no lab leak involved.
- ddingus 5y ago
  The lack of cooperation complicates all of this, which was my primary point.
  - AstralStorm 5y ago
    The problem is, there is nothing to cooperate in. Any source or fact given by Chinese government or scientists will not be trusted.
    - ddingus 5y ago
      It is necessary for global involvement. Direct research, investigations, data collection, the works. Being open enough to understand what is actual is the cooperation.

danenania 5y ago

Has anyone analyzed this with a Bayesian statistical approach? Considering that a zoonotic transfer could happen in a very large number of places on earth, I would imagine that the odds of an outbreak in any particular city would be quite small? With that in mind, how many virology labs are there doing gain-of-function research on coronaviruses? How many have had safety issues in the past? How many times have pathogens escaped? Also, how many zoonotic transfers have there been where no infected specimens of the host species could be found after a concerted investigation? It seems like one should be able to come up with reasonable estimates for most of these numbers with some digging. I'm not qualified to make conclusions one way or the other, but it feels to me like this calculation would weight heavily toward a lab leak. To a layman's eyes, it feels a bit like we've got a lung cancer patient who just so happened to be a pack-a-day smoker, and everyone's searching furiously for any explanation that isn't the cigarettes.

rllearneratwork 5y ago
>>"Has anyone analyzed this with a Bayesian statistical approach?" - YES. And they give lab leak theory over 80% likelihood https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COVID-19-SARS-CoV-2 https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COV...
- mhh__ 5y ago
  How can you assign a probability/likelihood to vague statements like "There is some weak evidence regarding lax security and procedures at the Wuhan Institute of Virology"
  - fastball 5y ago
    Probabilities determined from Bayesian analyses like this one aren't really intended to be perfect – it is more of an exercise to help you think through the various different possibilities in a more structured way. In other words, Bayesian estimates should always be taken as relative to all other related estimated outcomes rather than as absolutes in isolation (even thought you are arriving at a specific "probability").

weezin 5y ago

People are absolutely shocked when I tell them what China reports as their numbers for testing and cases.

HKH2 5y ago
Given how much control they have, and how much of a priority saving face is, governance in China is rife with perverse incentives.

tonfreed 5y ago

May not have come from the lab, but entirely possible they were working on bioweapons or something else untoward in Wuhan. Would explain why they don't want inspectors poking around We won't know until someone forces open those records, I guess.

lamontcg 5y ago

> What really makes me think though is the way China is being uncooperative This reminds me exactly of the same kind of arguments made about Saddam Hussein when it came to WMDs before 2003. It turned out that Hussein was playing to the domestic audience, not the USA. It made sense to him to stand up to the weapons inspections for domestic political consumption. Everyone in the USA, including the CIA thought he MUST have been actually hiding something, but he wasn't, it was all just bluster. Similarly here, its likely all for domestic consumption. They just don't want to admit it came from China, period. They've been pushing the idea that it was spreading like wildfire in Italy in Sept/Oct 2019 (via some scientific article that never should have been published). They're happy to make the argument entirely about the lab leak theory because then they can rely on the scientific community to debunk that -- and then all that remains for domestic consumption is their ideas that it came to China in imported food. And here's the kicker which is that if this doesn't make sense to you, it doesn't have to. They don't give one sloppy fuck about what you think. They care about what 1.4 billion Chinese people think. If you're convinced it is a lab leak they just don't care and that works fine for them. They can debunk that internally and push the idea that China is the victim. And the zoontic theory doesn't help them as much, then they have to explain why it happened again after SARS-1 in 2003, and they might have to actually do something about a lot of the animal farming practices in China, and could lose face for domestic political consumption. Bunker mentality is better for authoritarian regimes than self-reflection about mistakes. (See also Jose Mourinho's player management style)

tripletao 5y ago
That may be true, and I agree that possibility is underplayed. But if that's what happened, isn't the correct policy action the same as what those concerned about lab origin are advocating (i.e., to push for an investigation of the origins that's not fully dependent on the CCP's honesty)? The danger to humanity exists regardless of whether they're concealing reckless science that causes pandemics or reckless agriculture that causes pandemics.
- lamontcg 5y ago
  They know an investigation of the origins pins it on China. With a zoonotic source China is still at fault. As an authoritarian regime that outcome undermines them. A bunch of Americans angry about the lab leak theory works fine for them, that just enhances the bunker mentality for their own domestic consumption. And they're more worried about domestic politics now and spinning propaganda than they are about preventing the next pandemic.

Redoubts 5y ago

> if they were innocent they wouldn't need to limit access Never talk to the police

thu2111 5y ago

There's basically no evidence either way The article this article is about (Nick Wade's article) is built around the opposite claim, that there actually is by now quite a lot of evidence and it supports the lab leak theory. And in particular, there is no evidence of natural animal-to-human transmission that could balance out the preponderance of evidence on the other side.

dariusj18 5y ago

There are plenty of reasons that any State wouldn't cooperate or seem to be with an external investigation. If I were China I would certainly worry about a frameup or selective leaking of things to sway the public. There is very little motive for China to do anything given the risks.