I don't know what you mean. HFTs (and some hedge funds) trade over time horizons with no information...therefore, it is unrelated to anything I am saying (they

I don't know what you mean. HFTs (and some hedge funds) trade over time horizons with no information...therefore, it is unrelated to anything I am saying (they respond to liquidity, not fundamentals). You don't understand. The reason why price trends is because there is a persistent imbalance between supply and demand because of the presence of non-financial buyers who take liquidity at bad prices. Your point about soybeans make no sense, contango exists and is why commodity houses often have huge trading arms that generate lots of profit (they can put on contango trades like storing oil offshore in a tanker for six months). The reason why these trades generate profit, again, is because of a persistent imbalance between demand and supply (this is also why oil traded at negative prices...although this is slightly more complex because it involved financial buyers running ETFs who got stung by roll risk due to their own incompetence). But, either way, the point is that you can observe that demand and supply is out of balance now and buy, and make money because prices will continue to rise because supply can't be brought on quickly (a good example of this is copper: exploration has been poor for a decade plus, head grades continue to fall...there is no way to bring on supply for years).