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> I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. I'm not sure really. They keep throwing the entire company at insanely poorly leve

> I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. I'm not sure really. They keep throwing the entire company at insanely poorly leveraged bets with unfulfilled promises. (Cybertruck is on track to be delivered at a longer timeframe than any car tesla has ever made, they haven't even built the factory or unveiled the final design, same for Semi and Roadster, the new Model S was supposed to be shipping in..uh.. March?) I think they are scaled too big to breathe and survive, eventually being bought in a post-Elon world by a Ford, GM, or possibly Google or Apple.

cduzz 5y ago
They bet the company on the OG roadster, S, and 3. They don't need to now. The 3 and Y are quite successful and quite profitable. The Truck, Semi, Roadster, Leaf Blower, and such are all distractions that aren't worth building until they've managed to establish much larger battery volumes and aren't selling every Y and 3 they make months before they make them. What's their run rate? They've got a ton of cash and viable products (3 and Y) where there are people lined up to buy them before they're even made. And they've got the supercharger network which is an enormous differentiator against any other EV. Their biggest threat is if there's some enormous unseen flaw in their battery design where they get swamped with battery warranty claims. The share price is absurdly high, but it is similarly absurd to project the company going out of business.
- agloeregrets 5y ago
  They already are betting the company on a bunch of things. Their cash on hand is almost entirely debt. Additionally, they are merely meeting demand on Model 3 sales right now, don't forget that they spun down production rate on the 3/Y and are slowing China production as well. US charging networks are growing at a faster rate than Superchargers as well, so in roughly 2 years you are looking at a market where Electrify America is as big as the Supercharger network, the current NY to LA EV record is held by a Taycan on EA's network, not a Tesla. The Model 3 is not very profitable at all either, sure it sells well (as it should, it's a great car being sold at almost a loss!) but a M3 without AP is not profitable. Still, to this day, they haven't made a penny on their business other than with selling credits but they are not even investing that heavily back into the business right now. Finally, the Cybertruck was told to reservation holders to be shipping in 2021... which isn't happening. What I find kinda funny is this: You call the truck a distraction..when it is the #1 best selling category in the US AND they have fast encroaching competition that owns the market. That's like calling the Rav4 a distraction for Toyota. The Ford F150 Lightning will likely outsell the cycbertruck in the US as Ford will have two years to scale and keep it in that scale by time the Cybertruck does actually launch. It has been Ford's #1 R&D goal for the last three years as it should be, it's their #1 selling vehicle. Ford sells two F150s in the US for every car Tesla makes globally and the margin is way more per unit. I'm not saying they are going to go out of business today or this decade. I'm just saying that their differentiation will disappear, customer's will to deal with terrible timelines will evaporate when they can go the next door over and get it today, and once Elon is gone from TSLA (which will happen and should terrify shareholders; he clearly wants little to do with Tesla), the stock will fall like a rock and the debt leverage will fall with it finding Tesla way upside down on a LOT of money that they can't borrow more to cover and without the market and profit explosion the company is betting on.
  - riffraff 5y ago
    > he clearly wants little to do with Tesla What makes you think that? I mean he sure has more fun with other stuff, and I don't follow him closely, but I didn't get the impression he hated the business.
  - cduzz 5y ago
    Their debt [1] doesn't seem outrageous especially when they recently converted some of their over-inflated stock into more cash-on-hand. That article says they've got $19b in cash-ish assets, 11.7B in debt 2 of which is going to be coming due soon. Regarding 3rd party fast-charging networks; look at https://abetterrouteplanner.com/ https://abetterrouteplanner.com/ and a/b test a tesla vs non-tesla going from where you might want to be to where you might want to go. For the most part it is practical to use a tesla as a normal car including long-distance trips, the same isn't nearly as true for other EVs. Plus, a modern tesla can use 3rd party charging networks. As far as truck / semi / etc goes -- I suspect tesla simply doesn't have the battery capacity to make those new products and the existing product line. Tesla's a battery manufacturing concern looking for the highest profit-margin products to wrap around batteries. As they've expanded battery capacity they've expanded from unreliable sports car to luxobarge / weird SUV to BMW 3 / Audi A4 competitor and now have expanded to include competitors to the Q5. Lastly, when looking at the market cap of Tesla vs some other car company, keep in mind that tesla includes a global dealership network while other car manufacturing companies outsource the dealership side of the business to others. What's the global value of ford + all ford dealerships vs Tesla? [1] https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/02/19638445/teslas-debt-overview https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/02/19638445/teslas-debt-ove...
- Dah00n 5y ago
  >The 3 and Y are quite successful and quite profitable. I'm not sure I would define the sales as successful. Tesla would still be in the red if it wasn't for bitcoins and emission certificates they sell to other manufacturers (and this income will be gone in a few years). VW has barely started switching to EVs (ID.3 launched in July 2020) and yet they sold half as many EVs in 2020 as Tesla did, so maybe in that light it is kinda successful but at the same time VW sold almost ten million passenger cars. I predict that Tesla will be run over as a car company in a few years but will maybe become successful in investments.

cduzz 5y ago

They bet the company on the OG roadster, S, and 3. They don't need to now. The 3 and Y are quite successful and quite profitable. The Truck, Semi, Roadster, Leaf Blower, and such are all distractions that aren't worth building until they've managed to establish much larger battery volumes and aren't selling every Y and 3 they make months before they make them. What's their run rate? They've got a ton of cash and viable products (3 and Y) where there are people lined up to buy them before they're even made. And they've got the supercharger network which is an enormous differentiator against any other EV. Their biggest threat is if there's some enormous unseen flaw in their battery design where they get swamped with battery warranty claims. The share price is absurdly high, but it is similarly absurd to project the company going out of business.

agloeregrets 5y ago
They already are betting the company on a bunch of things. Their cash on hand is almost entirely debt. Additionally, they are merely meeting demand on Model 3 sales right now, don't forget that they spun down production rate on the 3/Y and are slowing China production as well. US charging networks are growing at a faster rate than Superchargers as well, so in roughly 2 years you are looking at a market where Electrify America is as big as the Supercharger network, the current NY to LA EV record is held by a Taycan on EA's network, not a Tesla. The Model 3 is not very profitable at all either, sure it sells well (as it should, it's a great car being sold at almost a loss!) but a M3 without AP is not profitable. Still, to this day, they haven't made a penny on their business other than with selling credits but they are not even investing that heavily back into the business right now. Finally, the Cybertruck was told to reservation holders to be shipping in 2021... which isn't happening. What I find kinda funny is this: You call the truck a distraction..when it is the #1 best selling category in the US AND they have fast encroaching competition that owns the market. That's like calling the Rav4 a distraction for Toyota. The Ford F150 Lightning will likely outsell the cycbertruck in the US as Ford will have two years to scale and keep it in that scale by time the Cybertruck does actually launch. It has been Ford's #1 R&D goal for the last three years as it should be, it's their #1 selling vehicle. Ford sells two F150s in the US for every car Tesla makes globally and the margin is way more per unit. I'm not saying they are going to go out of business today or this decade. I'm just saying that their differentiation will disappear, customer's will to deal with terrible timelines will evaporate when they can go the next door over and get it today, and once Elon is gone from TSLA (which will happen and should terrify shareholders; he clearly wants little to do with Tesla), the stock will fall like a rock and the debt leverage will fall with it finding Tesla way upside down on a LOT of money that they can't borrow more to cover and without the market and profit explosion the company is betting on.
- riffraff 5y ago
  > he clearly wants little to do with Tesla What makes you think that? I mean he sure has more fun with other stuff, and I don't follow him closely, but I didn't get the impression he hated the business.
- cduzz 5y ago
  Their debt [1] doesn't seem outrageous especially when they recently converted some of their over-inflated stock into more cash-on-hand. That article says they've got $19b in cash-ish assets, 11.7B in debt 2 of which is going to be coming due soon. Regarding 3rd party fast-charging networks; look at https://abetterrouteplanner.com/ https://abetterrouteplanner.com/ and a/b test a tesla vs non-tesla going from where you might want to be to where you might want to go. For the most part it is practical to use a tesla as a normal car including long-distance trips, the same isn't nearly as true for other EVs. Plus, a modern tesla can use 3rd party charging networks. As far as truck / semi / etc goes -- I suspect tesla simply doesn't have the battery capacity to make those new products and the existing product line. Tesla's a battery manufacturing concern looking for the highest profit-margin products to wrap around batteries. As they've expanded battery capacity they've expanded from unreliable sports car to luxobarge / weird SUV to BMW 3 / Audi A4 competitor and now have expanded to include competitors to the Q5. Lastly, when looking at the market cap of Tesla vs some other car company, keep in mind that tesla includes a global dealership network while other car manufacturing companies outsource the dealership side of the business to others. What's the global value of ford + all ford dealerships vs Tesla? [1] https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/02/19638445/teslas-debt-overview https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/02/19638445/teslas-debt-ove...
Dah00n 5y ago
>The 3 and Y are quite successful and quite profitable. I'm not sure I would define the sales as successful. Tesla would still be in the red if it wasn't for bitcoins and emission certificates they sell to other manufacturers (and this income will be gone in a few years). VW has barely started switching to EVs (ID.3 launched in July 2020) and yet they sold half as many EVs in 2020 as Tesla did, so maybe in that light it is kinda successful but at the same time VW sold almost ten million passenger cars. I predict that Tesla will be run over as a car company in a few years but will maybe become successful in investments.