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I'm having a hard time with this one since from the article it doesn't seem like Burry is seeing anything that isn't very well discussed/analyzed already regard

I'm having a hard time with this one since from the article it doesn't seem like Burry is seeing anything that isn't very well discussed/analyzed already regarding Tesla. Short sellers have gotten very burned in the past in gambles like this, but they've also sometimes made money. Given how historically irrational the market has been about Tesla, this just seems like a gamble rather than the well-reasoned short position based on deep (and unpopular) analysis that his subprime mortgage play was.

radicaldreamer 5y ago
It's likely he's already up massively on his PUTs, which were purchased sometime in Q1. We don't really know the strikes or expiry dates, so it's hard to say.
- WA 5y ago
  He announced it on Twitter when Tesla was around $580. Not sure if he averaged down his price, but I'd assume so.
the_mitsuhiko 5y ago
> this just seems like a gamble rather than the well-reasoned short position based on deep (and unpopular) analysis that his subprime mortgage play was. A short is a gamble all the time because you don't know the time component. Burry was "lucky" in that it happened fast enough. There are lots of people who want to short Tesla but don't dare to because of the cost involved in it and unpredictability of when their bet would pay off.
jdmoreira 5y ago
Tesla is a bubble for sure but this is way too risky. Sure, we don’t know the strikes or expiry dates but there are plenty of fan boys to take on the fight against Burry ad infinitum. The market can become irrational longer than you can become solvent. I'm 100% on Burry camp though.
- thouitsme 5y ago
  It's a surprise to see Keynes in here, glad to know.
thouitsme 5y ago
Well, Musk had lots of bitcoin/dogecoin on his mind lately. He is exchanging those for cars but not in a trustable way, how long do you think this can go? I don't have proof of anything but this can certainly damage the Tesla's balance sheet.

radicaldreamer 5y ago

It's likely he's already up massively on his PUTs, which were purchased sometime in Q1. We don't really know the strikes or expiry dates, so it's hard to say.

WA 5y ago
He announced it on Twitter when Tesla was around $580. Not sure if he averaged down his price, but I'd assume so.

the_mitsuhiko 5y ago

> this just seems like a gamble rather than the well-reasoned short position based on deep (and unpopular) analysis that his subprime mortgage play was. A short is a gamble all the time because you don't know the time component. Burry was "lucky" in that it happened fast enough. There are lots of people who want to short Tesla but don't dare to because of the cost involved in it and unpredictability of when their bet would pay off.

jdmoreira 5y ago

Tesla is a bubble for sure but this is way too risky. Sure, we don’t know the strikes or expiry dates but there are plenty of fan boys to take on the fight against Burry ad infinitum. The market can become irrational longer than you can become solvent. I'm 100% on Burry camp though.

thouitsme 5y ago
It's a surprise to see Keynes in here, glad to know.

thouitsme 5y ago

Well, Musk had lots of bitcoin/dogecoin on his mind lately. He is exchanging those for cars but not in a trustable way, how long do you think this can go? I don't have proof of anything but this can certainly damage the Tesla's balance sheet.