5 ms·

Combine: - Governments that shut down significant parts of every major economy, for several months, to contain the virus (which imho was a good reason), with

Combine: - Governments that shut down significant parts of every major economy, for several months, to contain the virus (which imho was a good reason), with - Trillions in stimulus - And a record global middle class that's never been larger or wealthier than today and wants to consume more than ever And this is the result. The free market has its flaws, but this situation is perfectly suited for capitalism to work its magic.

aantix 5y ago
>Governments that shut down significant parts of every major economy, for several months, to contain the virus (which imho was a good reason) The covid distributions were well known a couple months in. The vulnerable actually needed more protection. Isolation, cleanse everything delivered from the outside. The healthy cohorts should have continued as normal.
- theandrewbailey 5y ago
  It makes me wonder that when the next pandemic comes, will we do all of this again? 15 days to flatten the curve, but most restrictions and precautions put in place are still in effect over a year later. How willing will we be to change course when better data comes to light?
  - Bishop_ 5y ago
    I'm assuming next time there's so much as a hint of the next pandemic every country will immediately close it's borders to try and get into a New Zealand situation. Of course, that's assuming the next pandemic isn't in 100 years when we forget everything we learned this time around.
  - stephc_int13 5y ago
    The real lesson, I think, is to not over-prepare. Paradoxically, most of the big governments had plans in place for years, even decades, but they were not targeting the correct virus, and they had a hard time adapting to something unknown. Next time, it will be different, and we should only be prepared to that.
  - im3w1l 5y ago
    What we really need is more basic research into vaccines. We need a solid theory of vaccine safety, so that we can inject people on the first day of the pandemic. How can we ethically get such a theory? Cancer. Tailor make a vaccine targetting the particular cancer cell a given patient has. If you give this as a hail-mary to those with a bad prognosis it becomes a win-win.
- dontreact 5y ago
  Sounds easy but in practice how do you deal with the many multigenerational households?
andrewmcwatters 5y ago
> - And a record global middle class that's never been larger or wealthier than today and wants to consume more than ever Larger population? Sure. Wealthier? Uh, no. By like no meaningful metric that I can think of.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  US Personal Savings Rate is through the roof. I'm talking unprecedented levels compared to the last 50 years. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT US middle class reacted to the pandemic by saving tons of money. At least, the ones who still kept their jobs (which was most people in fact. Yeah, Hotels / Hospitality / Restaurants / Airlines / Cruises did poorly, but that's still only one subset of the middle class). Now that the US is leading the vaccinations in the world (at least, in the top 10 countries), and with more and more optimism coming about, people are looking to spend that money they saved.
  - harimau777 5y ago
    The problem that I see is that the cost to buy a house is also through the roof.
    - murph-almighty 5y ago
      I suspect urban property is not so bad, given everyone fled those areas.
- ben_w 5y ago
  Calories, computing, long distance communication, long distance travel, breath and depth of entertainment choices, and the total elimination of multiple diseases from many countries? Plus, on average, more literal money to spend, thanks to having nothing much to spend it on for the last year.
  - andyana 5y ago
    > Calories Yup. > Computing, long distance travel, breadth and depth of entertainment choices, and disease These have nothing to do with class, and I'm not even sure entertainment choices have gotten any better.
seiferteric 5y ago
Another thing I think is just spending being redirected from industries like travel and restaurants towards everything else.
hogFeast 5y ago
This isn't capitalism. The middle class has been made wealthy by the government/Fed. The government is doling out cash at a furious pace. Honestly, I have never seen the price mechanism function this badly in my investing career (10 years). And I studied economic history, and there are relatively few parallels to what the govt is doing now. Whatever happens though, this isn't capitalism. Failure is the most important part of capitalism. The politics of today mean failure cannot occur. Btw, to be specific, the stuff you are seeing in private equity (not just in the US but Europe) is just totally insane. Gambles that should have failed are returning 10x, money is being raised for non-productive purposes at 2% whilst you have consumers struggling for finance. The homeless situation in the US is intolerable. Some US cities are third-world, every bridge has people in tents underneath. I can see why people think the system is working, it has made the already rich unimaginably richer...it isn't capitalism, it is an aristocracy. It is appalling that some people justify their theft by saying they deserve it (an unfortunate consequence of capitalism is that the winners feel justified).

aantix 5y ago

>Governments that shut down significant parts of every major economy, for several months, to contain the virus (which imho was a good reason) The covid distributions were well known a couple months in. The vulnerable actually needed more protection. Isolation, cleanse everything delivered from the outside. The healthy cohorts should have continued as normal.

theandrewbailey 5y ago
It makes me wonder that when the next pandemic comes, will we do all of this again? 15 days to flatten the curve, but most restrictions and precautions put in place are still in effect over a year later. How willing will we be to change course when better data comes to light?
- Bishop_ 5y ago
  I'm assuming next time there's so much as a hint of the next pandemic every country will immediately close it's borders to try and get into a New Zealand situation. Of course, that's assuming the next pandemic isn't in 100 years when we forget everything we learned this time around.
- stephc_int13 5y ago
  The real lesson, I think, is to not over-prepare. Paradoxically, most of the big governments had plans in place for years, even decades, but they were not targeting the correct virus, and they had a hard time adapting to something unknown. Next time, it will be different, and we should only be prepared to that.
- im3w1l 5y ago
  What we really need is more basic research into vaccines. We need a solid theory of vaccine safety, so that we can inject people on the first day of the pandemic. How can we ethically get such a theory? Cancer. Tailor make a vaccine targetting the particular cancer cell a given patient has. If you give this as a hail-mary to those with a bad prognosis it becomes a win-win.
dontreact 5y ago
Sounds easy but in practice how do you deal with the many multigenerational households?

andrewmcwatters 5y ago

> - And a record global middle class that's never been larger or wealthier than today and wants to consume more than ever Larger population? Sure. Wealthier? Uh, no. By like no meaningful metric that I can think of.

dragontamer 5y ago
US Personal Savings Rate is through the roof. I'm talking unprecedented levels compared to the last 50 years. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT US middle class reacted to the pandemic by saving tons of money. At least, the ones who still kept their jobs (which was most people in fact. Yeah, Hotels / Hospitality / Restaurants / Airlines / Cruises did poorly, but that's still only one subset of the middle class). Now that the US is leading the vaccinations in the world (at least, in the top 10 countries), and with more and more optimism coming about, people are looking to spend that money they saved.
- harimau777 5y ago
  The problem that I see is that the cost to buy a house is also through the roof.
  - murph-almighty 5y ago
    I suspect urban property is not so bad, given everyone fled those areas.
ben_w 5y ago
Calories, computing, long distance communication, long distance travel, breath and depth of entertainment choices, and the total elimination of multiple diseases from many countries? Plus, on average, more literal money to spend, thanks to having nothing much to spend it on for the last year.
- andyana 5y ago
  > Calories Yup. > Computing, long distance travel, breadth and depth of entertainment choices, and disease These have nothing to do with class, and I'm not even sure entertainment choices have gotten any better.

seiferteric 5y ago

Another thing I think is just spending being redirected from industries like travel and restaurants towards everything else.

hogFeast 5y ago

This isn't capitalism. The middle class has been made wealthy by the government/Fed. The government is doling out cash at a furious pace. Honestly, I have never seen the price mechanism function this badly in my investing career (10 years). And I studied economic history, and there are relatively few parallels to what the govt is doing now. Whatever happens though, this isn't capitalism. Failure is the most important part of capitalism. The politics of today mean failure cannot occur. Btw, to be specific, the stuff you are seeing in private equity (not just in the US but Europe) is just totally insane. Gambles that should have failed are returning 10x, money is being raised for non-productive purposes at 2% whilst you have consumers struggling for finance. The homeless situation in the US is intolerable. Some US cities are third-world, every bridge has people in tents underneath. I can see why people think the system is working, it has made the already rich unimaginably richer...it isn't capitalism, it is an aristocracy. It is appalling that some people justify their theft by saying they deserve it (an unfortunate consequence of capitalism is that the winners feel justified).