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What will 2040 probably look like assuming no singularity?
- coldtea 5y agoThis "energy will be 10x cheaper / practically free" is the "by 2000 everybody will have flying cars and humanoid robot assistants" of the 1950s... Expect rather the opposite: much more social conflict and middle class strife (globally), the US falling further down globally, heavy resource and trade wars, including actual conflict, and so on...
- morpheos137 5y agoYeah this list seems highly delusional to me. For most of human history change has been slow. Adjacent decades are pretty similar. The only reason that was not the case for the last 200 or so years was the tremendous scientific progress of the time. Now scientific progress has slowed so change will also slow. Along with it, economic growth. So the world is in for a big problem learning to support a large population with a relatively static size pie of resources. The reason hydrocarbons have been used is because they were cheap. Solar and stuff like that is more expensive and less energy dense than H-C bonds. >Expect rather the opposite: much more social conflict and middle class strife (globally), the US falling further down globally, heavy resource and trade wars, including actual conflict, and so on... I think this is spot on. And the fall is going to be so much harder due to the level of delusion among the "intelligent" class. Technological progress follows a logistic "s" curve until new basic science is uncovered. It does not follow an exponential curve. There will be no singularity. There were BEVs in 2011. They are not that much different from now. There were smart phones in 2011. They are not functionally that much different from now. There were ponzi schemes in the 1920s. There is bitcoin now.
- RGamma 5y agoFurther biodiversity collapse, climate change exacerbations and knock-on effects... The future isn't what it used to be.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]