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> but Dream hired a statistician to debunk the numbers in the first video. The video discusses this and tries to provide their own intuition besides the two pa
by ketzu 5y ago
> but Dream hired a statistician to debunk the numbers in the first video.
The video discusses this and tries to provide their own intuition besides the two papers, as both agree on the core odds of the likelyhood being around 2 x 10^22. They contrast this with the number of events if 10 billion (10^10) humans would do something for 1 century (10^2) every second (~3.15 x 10^7): ~3.15 * 10^19. So the odds of the event happening if more humans than we have today do it every second for a century is roughly 1 in 1000.
Lastly, they postulate it doesn't matter if they cheated, but the sheer unlikeliness shows that the minecraft run is not performing up to expectations.
- flaubere 5y agoIf the chance of it happening is that small, isn't it fair to also consider the probability that we live in a universe without objective reality and/or where a god or gods intentionally interfere with random occurrences such as RNG outputs? I would put this at better than 1/10^22. If you claimed that your religion was real and showed me an incontrovertible 'miracle' which had a chance of less than 1/10^20 of occurring by chance, I think I would accept your claim.
- konschubert 5y agoMaybe there is yet-unknown physics/gods that show up in minecraft speedruns. Maybe he cheated. We all have our own priors, I guess, but personally, I consider one of those to be more likely :D