5 ms·

In how many of the countries that did really well did the virus have the same head start that it had in the US and Europe before getting discovered?

refurb 5y ago
The real question - how many countries did well that were at the center of the prior SARS and bird flu outbreaks of the past?
- orblivion 5y ago
  As I understand, SARS 1 and MERS are much less contagious than SARS 2.
  - refurb 5y ago
    But much more fatal. These countries had two rounds of practice in controlling a major epidemic.
lethologica 5y ago
How important is a head start though in these situations? If the response was poor in either case, the result would be poor, right?
- orblivion 5y ago
  If the US had in reality on the order of 100 cases, there could be a credible effort to get rid of all of them and reopen. You wouldn't have to lock down hardcore for as long. In Australia from what I've seen fly across Twitter, they had the luxury of periodically locking down a city when they saw a single case, to make sure it didn't escape into the population. I agree that there could be a way for this to work in the US but it would be a long slog. South Korea seems like they could pull it off. So I'll grant you them for sure as being superior.
Barrin92 5y ago
It started in China, a country with 1.4 billion people and 20 million pop cities and even if you 100x their official number they did better than the US or Europe. There's few excuses for our mismanagement.
- slg 5y ago
  That is an even less fair comparison. The Chinese government has a tremendous amount of power over the daily life of its citizens in a way that isn't replicable most other places. There were stories of China literally welding doors to apartment buildings shut and forcibly dragging people away to quarantine facilities as soon as they tested positive.
  - orblivion 5y ago
    FWIW from a brief search months ago it seemed that the welding stories are hearsay. Iirc you can find reference to them in the news but it didn't sound concrete.
    - NicoJuicy 5y ago
      There were literal videos about it at the same time ( a year ago)
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - orblivion 5y ago
        I recall seeing various grainy creepy videos (not just about this) supposedly of China posted on Twitter. I started to wonder who was really pushing these videos. I'd have to see a video corroborated by a reasonably trusted news source.
        NicoJuicy 5y ago
        Eg News sources of the BBC had conflicts of interest about reporting on this ( since they have/had a division in China). What would even be framed in the media when these were really user videos without journalists. Journalists couldn't report live, so i don't think there's something else than opinion pieces.
PeterisP 5y ago
For me "countries that did really well" is mainly places like Singapore and Taiwan and South Korea, which got the virus earlier than USA and Europe but took it seriously from the very start.
- orblivion 5y ago
  Okay, if they actually got the virus that early, then these countries are the answer to my question. However... at least for Taiwan that doesn't feel like it adds up: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/taiwan https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/taiwan They've had fewer than 1700 cases, and that's including a recent massive outbreak. They peaked on March 26th 7-day average with 21 cases a day. Granted, the US took maybe a couple more weeks to ramp up to its first plateau, so maybe if it was caught here a few weeks earlier it would have made all the difference. But it feels a lot more like Taiwan just didn't have a lot of travel to and from Wuhan?
  - eob 5y ago
    Taiwan resident here. Just wanted to include that “massive outbreak” so far means a few hundred cases nationally. That’s bad, it might get a lot worse, and we’re all nervous — but just wanted to add the context because “massive” can mean a lot of things with orders of magnitude difference.
    - orblivion 5y ago
      Yep, I only meant that relative to how you've been doing. Obviously y'all are still doing fantastic compared to others. Best of luck. BTW is there a vaccination drive over there? That's got to calm things down somewhat right?
  - PeterisP 5y ago
    Rapid and strict incoming travel restrictions were a key part of "taking it seriously from the very start" with a big impact on future outcome. There are all kinds of effective measures (e.g. contact tracing, quarantining of unconfirmed suspect cases) that work when you have 20 cases a day and don't work when you have 2000 cases a day, so going all-in while you still have just a few cases works, because by the time you have many cases, it's too late.

refurb 5y ago

The real question - how many countries did well that were at the center of the prior SARS and bird flu outbreaks of the past?

orblivion 5y ago
As I understand, SARS 1 and MERS are much less contagious than SARS 2.
- refurb 5y ago
  But much more fatal. These countries had two rounds of practice in controlling a major epidemic.

lethologica 5y ago

How important is a head start though in these situations? If the response was poor in either case, the result would be poor, right?

orblivion 5y ago
If the US had in reality on the order of 100 cases, there could be a credible effort to get rid of all of them and reopen. You wouldn't have to lock down hardcore for as long. In Australia from what I've seen fly across Twitter, they had the luxury of periodically locking down a city when they saw a single case, to make sure it didn't escape into the population. I agree that there could be a way for this to work in the US but it would be a long slog. South Korea seems like they could pull it off. So I'll grant you them for sure as being superior.

Barrin92 5y ago

It started in China, a country with 1.4 billion people and 20 million pop cities and even if you 100x their official number they did better than the US or Europe. There's few excuses for our mismanagement.

slg 5y ago
That is an even less fair comparison. The Chinese government has a tremendous amount of power over the daily life of its citizens in a way that isn't replicable most other places. There were stories of China literally welding doors to apartment buildings shut and forcibly dragging people away to quarantine facilities as soon as they tested positive.
- orblivion 5y ago
  FWIW from a brief search months ago it seemed that the welding stories are hearsay. Iirc you can find reference to them in the news but it didn't sound concrete.
  - NicoJuicy 5y ago
    There were literal videos about it at the same time ( a year ago)
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - orblivion 5y ago
      I recall seeing various grainy creepy videos (not just about this) supposedly of China posted on Twitter. I started to wonder who was really pushing these videos. I'd have to see a video corroborated by a reasonably trusted news source.
      - NicoJuicy 5y ago
        Eg News sources of the BBC had conflicts of interest about reporting on this ( since they have/had a division in China). What would even be framed in the media when these were really user videos without journalists. Journalists couldn't report live, so i don't think there's something else than opinion pieces.

PeterisP 5y ago

For me "countries that did really well" is mainly places like Singapore and Taiwan and South Korea, which got the virus earlier than USA and Europe but took it seriously from the very start.

orblivion 5y ago
Okay, if they actually got the virus that early, then these countries are the answer to my question. However... at least for Taiwan that doesn't feel like it adds up: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/taiwan https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/taiwan They've had fewer than 1700 cases, and that's including a recent massive outbreak. They peaked on March 26th 7-day average with 21 cases a day. Granted, the US took maybe a couple more weeks to ramp up to its first plateau, so maybe if it was caught here a few weeks earlier it would have made all the difference. But it feels a lot more like Taiwan just didn't have a lot of travel to and from Wuhan?
- eob 5y ago
  Taiwan resident here. Just wanted to include that “massive outbreak” so far means a few hundred cases nationally. That’s bad, it might get a lot worse, and we’re all nervous — but just wanted to add the context because “massive” can mean a lot of things with orders of magnitude difference.
  - orblivion 5y ago
    Yep, I only meant that relative to how you've been doing. Obviously y'all are still doing fantastic compared to others. Best of luck. BTW is there a vaccination drive over there? That's got to calm things down somewhat right?
- PeterisP 5y ago
  Rapid and strict incoming travel restrictions were a key part of "taking it seriously from the very start" with a big impact on future outcome. There are all kinds of effective measures (e.g. contact tracing, quarantining of unconfirmed suspect cases) that work when you have 20 cases a day and don't work when you have 2000 cases a day, so going all-in while you still have just a few cases works, because by the time you have many cases, it's too late.