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This is from earlier: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countries-in-2020/ https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countr... I

This is from earlier: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countries-in-2020/ https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countr... Interestingly Sweden that got famous for defying lockdowns saw an uptick of 1.5% excess mortality per 100K people compared to 12.9% for the US that was relatively more locked down. I'm not sure what to make of it, but it sure is an interesting data point.

aaronblohowiak 5y ago
I would not typify the US as "mostly locked down"
- scrollaway 5y ago
  Indeed, and Sweden also had the benefit of the lockdowns in the rest of Europe. I don't think you can compare Sweden to the entirety of the US. A single state maybe.
- jmahyoung 5y ago
  Would you typify the US as more Locked Down than Sweden? Because their numbers are better. If their approach was worse why are their numbers not worse?
  - nicoburns 5y ago
    I've heard it suggested that there was a lot of voluntary distancing and othet measures taken in sweden. It wouldn't suprise me if there was more actual distancing in "not locked down" sweden than in "locked down" US. But perhaps the protests etc I've seen on TV wetrre exagerated?
  - raydev 5y ago
    Fewer travellers in and out of Sweden.
AptExtrapolatio 5y ago
Simple. US has obesity as a significant comorbidity factor.
- nervlord 5y ago
  ding ding ding ding tell him what he's won!
dragonwriter 5y ago
> the US that was mostly locked the US was not mostly locked down, and indeed made noncompliance with safety measures a major partisan identity issue for the faction controlling the federal executive, the upper federal legislative house, most state governments, and much of law enforcement even in the other states. It mostly had modest, inconsistent, uncoordinated, and largely unenforced restrictions. A few jurisdictions did at least nominal lockdowns for fairly brief periods (California did twice, though virtually every county sheriff had publicly announced that they either would not enforce orders at all or would do so only by education around compliance by the time of the second one near the end of 2020.)
- codelord 5y ago
  Fixed mostly to relatively. That wasn't my main point really. I thought the data points were interesting.
jussij 5y ago
Sweden's early success with their 'herd immunity' experiment was short lived. They failed to actually achieve 'herd immunity' and did not avoid the eventual virus death toll: https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/sweden-crisis-worsens-after-its-antilockdown-stance-proven-a-failure/news-story/de444b198eb996a3c9af469d72089dfe https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/sweden-cris... By comparison Finland, it's neighbor took a much stricter approach and never reached the same level of death. Finland: 931 deaths at 168 per million with a 1.0% death rate. https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/finland https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/finland Sweden: 14275 deaths at 1406 per million with a 1.4% death rate. https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/sweden https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/sweden
- sethammons 5y ago
  Can we then talk about the economic disruption felt by each respectively compared to the 0.4% difference in death rate? I don’t have insights into either county.
  - jussij 5y ago
    Here are the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for these two countries: Sweden: https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/gdp-growth-annual https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/gdp-growth-annual Finland: https://tradingeconomics.com/finland/gdp-growth-annual https://tradingeconomics.com/finland/gdp-growth-annual Looking at those charts they show very similar economic outcomes for the two countries. Of the last 4 COVID effected quarters Finland won two and Sweden won two. And Sweden actually felt the highest quarterly contraction at -7.7% compare to the -6.1% for Finland.
  - jussij 5y ago
    That 0.4% difference in death rate is measuring survivability as it records the chance of dying from the virus. That 0.4% difference suggests Finland's health system was better than Sweden's at handling the virus, as your chances of dying were much less. When it comes to actual deaths Finland was doing over 830% better (i.e. 168 per million compared to 1406 per million) than Sweden. Edit: Fixed my bad math. My 90% better figure was out by a factor close to 100.
MagnumOpus 5y ago
That data is either wrong or severely outdated. The Economist website [1] has Sweden's excess deaths per 100k at 102 (not 13). While better than the US -- which was also not really locked down as other commenters state -- it is 5x worse than neighboring Finland, and infinitely worse than neighboring Norway and Denmark (which had negative excess deaths during the pandemic). [1] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...

aaronblohowiak 5y ago

I would not typify the US as "mostly locked down"

scrollaway 5y ago
Indeed, and Sweden also had the benefit of the lockdowns in the rest of Europe. I don't think you can compare Sweden to the entirety of the US. A single state maybe.
jmahyoung 5y ago
Would you typify the US as more Locked Down than Sweden? Because their numbers are better. If their approach was worse why are their numbers not worse?
- nicoburns 5y ago
  I've heard it suggested that there was a lot of voluntary distancing and othet measures taken in sweden. It wouldn't suprise me if there was more actual distancing in "not locked down" sweden than in "locked down" US. But perhaps the protests etc I've seen on TV wetrre exagerated?
- raydev 5y ago
  Fewer travellers in and out of Sweden.

AptExtrapolatio 5y ago

Simple. US has obesity as a significant comorbidity factor.

nervlord 5y ago
ding ding ding ding tell him what he's won!

dragonwriter 5y ago

> the US that was mostly locked the US was not mostly locked down, and indeed made noncompliance with safety measures a major partisan identity issue for the faction controlling the federal executive, the upper federal legislative house, most state governments, and much of law enforcement even in the other states. It mostly had modest, inconsistent, uncoordinated, and largely unenforced restrictions. A few jurisdictions did at least nominal lockdowns for fairly brief periods (California did twice, though virtually every county sheriff had publicly announced that they either would not enforce orders at all or would do so only by education around compliance by the time of the second one near the end of 2020.)

codelord 5y ago
Fixed mostly to relatively. That wasn't my main point really. I thought the data points were interesting.

jussij 5y ago

Sweden's early success with their 'herd immunity' experiment was short lived. They failed to actually achieve 'herd immunity' and did not avoid the eventual virus death toll: https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/sweden-crisis-worsens-after-its-antilockdown-stance-proven-a-failure/news-story/de444b198eb996a3c9af469d72089dfe https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/sweden-cris... By comparison Finland, it's neighbor took a much stricter approach and never reached the same level of death. Finland: 931 deaths at 168 per million with a 1.0% death rate. https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/finland https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/finland Sweden: 14275 deaths at 1406 per million with a 1.4% death rate. https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/sweden https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/sweden

sethammons 5y ago
Can we then talk about the economic disruption felt by each respectively compared to the 0.4% difference in death rate? I don’t have insights into either county.
- jussij 5y ago
  Here are the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for these two countries: Sweden: https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/gdp-growth-annual https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/gdp-growth-annual Finland: https://tradingeconomics.com/finland/gdp-growth-annual https://tradingeconomics.com/finland/gdp-growth-annual Looking at those charts they show very similar economic outcomes for the two countries. Of the last 4 COVID effected quarters Finland won two and Sweden won two. And Sweden actually felt the highest quarterly contraction at -7.7% compare to the -6.1% for Finland.
- jussij 5y ago
  That 0.4% difference in death rate is measuring survivability as it records the chance of dying from the virus. That 0.4% difference suggests Finland's health system was better than Sweden's at handling the virus, as your chances of dying were much less. When it comes to actual deaths Finland was doing over 830% better (i.e. 168 per million compared to 1406 per million) than Sweden. Edit: Fixed my bad math. My 90% better figure was out by a factor close to 100.

MagnumOpus 5y ago

That data is either wrong or severely outdated. The Economist website [1] has Sweden's excess deaths per 100k at 102 (not 13). While better than the US -- which was also not really locked down as other commenters state -- it is 5x worse than neighboring Finland, and infinitely worse than neighboring Norway and Denmark (which had negative excess deaths during the pandemic). [1] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...