4 ms·

> If this had been a "real" plague, of the kind humanity has faced repeatedly in the past (and has been expected for some time now), we would have been totally

by umvi 5y ago

> If this had been a "real" plague, of the kind humanity has faced repeatedly in the past (and has been expected for some time now), we would have been totally and utterly screwed. Not necessarily. Part of the reason there was so much pushback against public health mandates was because covid was so tame. You are being forced, by the government, to wear a mask, isolate from others, and stop going to work for an entire year for a disease that, for the vast majority who get it, just makes it so you can't taste or smell anything for a few days along with fatigue and flu-like symptoms. If it were like black death and 50% of people who got it were dying you better believe there would be bi-partisan support for mask usage and lockdowns.

chiefalchemist 5y ago
Agreed. But now the bar is set. Hyperbole and data abuse have longer term consequences. Eventually, we'll face something more deadly. But plenty of citizens will be sceptical, as they should be. That's the problem. Some call this a test run. I'm not so sure crying wolf qualifies.
eyelidlessness 5y ago
I can accept that the initial worst case mortality claims turned out to be too high. But I can’t accept this claim: > a disease that, for the vast majority who get it, just makes it so you can't taste or smell anything for a few days along with fatigue and flu-like symptoms People who’ve been sick and survived, even with minimal symptoms, are experiencing long term health issues. It’s one thing to recognize that the early estimates overstated mortality. It’s another thing to minimize what people who’ve survived infection are experiencing.
- giantg2 5y ago
  "People who’ve been sick and survived, even with minimal symptoms, are experiencing long term health issues." I would say 65-80% of non-hospitalized people being fine is consistent with the prior comment's use of "vast majority".
  - eyelidlessness 5y ago
    I didn’t object to the quantification, I objected to minimizing the impact and characterizing it as temporary. I don’t know the distribution of long term impact (and as far as I can tell no one does, unless we have time travelers about), but it’s pretty well known that there’s more than mortality rate at stake.
    - giantg2 5y ago
      "(and as far as I can tell no one does, unless we have time travelers about)" The CDC and others have looked at at long term effects, which is where I got those estimates. If you mean it's too early to tell because not enough time has gone by, then we could say the same about the vaccine (which is somewhat valid for both sides, but lacking evidence relegates it more to a belief than fact-based opinion). The comment wasn't minimizing the impact. They were simply stating that people didn't take it as seriously as they would have if covid was more impactful. I think this is a valid point. We see similar issues in attitudes for other infections that can carry longterm impact (even lack of education and protective measures around stuff like hepatitis and HIV).
      - eyelidlessness 5y ago
        This is the part I object to: > just makes it so you can't taste or smell anything for a few days along with fatigue and flu-like symptoms Maybe for the “vast majority” that’s true, I can’t speak to the distribution of ongoing impact people are experiencing or will over time. But there are a lot of people who have been infected, have survived, and have ongoing complications that go well beyond this description.
        giantg2 5y ago
        It's about 20-35% for non-hospitalized cases according to the CDC. "Maybe for the “vast majority” that’s true" That's why they qualified it as such. Even the flu has long term impacts in 10% of patients. So yeah, long term impacts are a concern, but the attitudes of many people (the commenter's point) are based on the fact that the majority of people are fine. For example, have you ever considered that you have a 10% chance of long flu effects? I would guess that like most people, you have not, because the vast majority of people are not affected by it.
- alerighi 5y ago
  In very small minority of cases. I know a lot (at least 20) people that got the virus, and all of them are fine today, as they were before catching the virus. Of course people that got really sick and went to the hospital, it's different. But most of them were either old or already had some illness. In the end we are making all this effort to stop a virus, while we sell (with profit) cigarettes that makes each years an only slightly smaller number of deaths. So to me, if we care about public health so much, just stop selling tobacco and we reduce the mortality. But do we care? In the end, we need people to die, at one point.
  - wpietri 5y ago
    This arguing from anecdote when there are stats available is just bizarre. And you talk like we as a society haven't been working to limit tobacco addition for decades. People care about that and people care about epidemic deaths. If you don't think death is a big deal, you are welcome to live your life courting it. But I don't get the performative lack of empathy for those dead, those deeply sick, and the living who have to deal with both the rest of their lives.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
lastofthemojito 5y ago
I think that's exactly why the COVID pandemic has been so bad. The outcomes aren't as terrifying as say, ebola. If COVID had been ebola but with incredibly high transmission rate, people would have shut down hard. Everyone. Everywhere. With an extreme abundance of caution. I bet we would have stopped that early. Instead, you have this insidious disease that is so easy for people to compare to the flu and common cold, and it preys mostly on the oldest and most frail, so many people went with a "I'll be fine" attitude. And most of those folks did survive. And the virus just continued to spread, steadily doing its thing, killing millions of people worldwide.
- xwolfi 5y ago
  It s so easy to compare with common cold because both are coronavirii... Look I wore the mask like everyone in HK since the first day, but you have to admit you talk of it like it could kill you. It wouldn't, deaths are rare. Millions of people are not a big relative number... There are things that must kill way more that you consider absolute necessity, like coca cola, whisky or cigarets.
  - wpietri 5y ago
    This line of argument is so tiresome. If death is not a big deal to you, you're welcome to give it a swing and see what you think. Or to take as much personal risk as you want. But people get to choose. If a recreational skydiver gets pancreatic cancer, that's still bad and I refuse to pretend otherwise.
    - sethammons 5y ago
      > Or to take as much personal risk as you want That’s the point that all people challenging the lock downs and mask are trying to make. It just kinda ignores the whole “this can cause it to be more likely to be encountered by a person who will handle it poorly” thing.
  - lastofthemojito 5y ago
    That's exactly my point. I got COVID. It was a mild case and I survived it with no issues. My case did feel like a common cold, as did so many others. I also know someone who died of COVID. That's the sneaky thing. It's almost as if the virus plays eeny, meeny, miny, moe - a bunch of us get a sore throat, and one person gets absolutely ravaged. It's very tempting not to put your life on hold when there's a really good chance you'll beat it. Of course, when vast numbers think that way, the virus spreads widely and many die. As to your "millions of people are not a big relative number" point - at the peak of the pandemic in the USA, COVID became the leading cause of death.[0] That seems fairly major in a relative sense. [0] https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/slide/covid-19-now-leading-cause-of-death-in-the-united-states/ https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/slide/covid-19-now-...

by umvi 5y ago

chiefalchemist 5y ago

Agreed. But now the bar is set. Hyperbole and data abuse have longer term consequences. Eventually, we'll face something more deadly. But plenty of citizens will be sceptical, as they should be. That's the problem. Some call this a test run. I'm not so sure crying wolf qualifies.

eyelidlessness 5y ago

I can accept that the initial worst case mortality claims turned out to be too high. But I can’t accept this claim: > a disease that, for the vast majority who get it, just makes it so you can't taste or smell anything for a few days along with fatigue and flu-like symptoms People who’ve been sick and survived, even with minimal symptoms, are experiencing long term health issues. It’s one thing to recognize that the early estimates overstated mortality. It’s another thing to minimize what people who’ve survived infection are experiencing.

giantg2 5y ago
"People who’ve been sick and survived, even with minimal symptoms, are experiencing long term health issues." I would say 65-80% of non-hospitalized people being fine is consistent with the prior comment's use of "vast majority".
- eyelidlessness 5y ago
  I didn’t object to the quantification, I objected to minimizing the impact and characterizing it as temporary. I don’t know the distribution of long term impact (and as far as I can tell no one does, unless we have time travelers about), but it’s pretty well known that there’s more than mortality rate at stake.
  - giantg2 5y ago
    "(and as far as I can tell no one does, unless we have time travelers about)" The CDC and others have looked at at long term effects, which is where I got those estimates. If you mean it's too early to tell because not enough time has gone by, then we could say the same about the vaccine (which is somewhat valid for both sides, but lacking evidence relegates it more to a belief than fact-based opinion). The comment wasn't minimizing the impact. They were simply stating that people didn't take it as seriously as they would have if covid was more impactful. I think this is a valid point. We see similar issues in attitudes for other infections that can carry longterm impact (even lack of education and protective measures around stuff like hepatitis and HIV).
    - eyelidlessness 5y ago
      This is the part I object to: > just makes it so you can't taste or smell anything for a few days along with fatigue and flu-like symptoms Maybe for the “vast majority” that’s true, I can’t speak to the distribution of ongoing impact people are experiencing or will over time. But there are a lot of people who have been infected, have survived, and have ongoing complications that go well beyond this description.
      - giantg2 5y ago
        It's about 20-35% for non-hospitalized cases according to the CDC. "Maybe for the “vast majority” that’s true" That's why they qualified it as such. Even the flu has long term impacts in 10% of patients. So yeah, long term impacts are a concern, but the attitudes of many people (the commenter's point) are based on the fact that the majority of people are fine. For example, have you ever considered that you have a 10% chance of long flu effects? I would guess that like most people, you have not, because the vast majority of people are not affected by it.
alerighi 5y ago
In very small minority of cases. I know a lot (at least 20) people that got the virus, and all of them are fine today, as they were before catching the virus. Of course people that got really sick and went to the hospital, it's different. But most of them were either old or already had some illness. In the end we are making all this effort to stop a virus, while we sell (with profit) cigarettes that makes each years an only slightly smaller number of deaths. So to me, if we care about public health so much, just stop selling tobacco and we reduce the mortality. But do we care? In the end, we need people to die, at one point.
- wpietri 5y ago
  This arguing from anecdote when there are stats available is just bizarre. And you talk like we as a society haven't been working to limit tobacco addition for decades. People care about that and people care about epidemic deaths. If you don't think death is a big deal, you are welcome to live your life courting it. But I don't get the performative lack of empathy for those dead, those deeply sick, and the living who have to deal with both the rest of their lives.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

lastofthemojito 5y ago

I think that's exactly why the COVID pandemic has been so bad. The outcomes aren't as terrifying as say, ebola. If COVID had been ebola but with incredibly high transmission rate, people would have shut down hard. Everyone. Everywhere. With an extreme abundance of caution. I bet we would have stopped that early. Instead, you have this insidious disease that is so easy for people to compare to the flu and common cold, and it preys mostly on the oldest and most frail, so many people went with a "I'll be fine" attitude. And most of those folks did survive. And the virus just continued to spread, steadily doing its thing, killing millions of people worldwide.

xwolfi 5y ago
It s so easy to compare with common cold because both are coronavirii... Look I wore the mask like everyone in HK since the first day, but you have to admit you talk of it like it could kill you. It wouldn't, deaths are rare. Millions of people are not a big relative number... There are things that must kill way more that you consider absolute necessity, like coca cola, whisky or cigarets.
- wpietri 5y ago
  This line of argument is so tiresome. If death is not a big deal to you, you're welcome to give it a swing and see what you think. Or to take as much personal risk as you want. But people get to choose. If a recreational skydiver gets pancreatic cancer, that's still bad and I refuse to pretend otherwise.
  - sethammons 5y ago
    > Or to take as much personal risk as you want That’s the point that all people challenging the lock downs and mask are trying to make. It just kinda ignores the whole “this can cause it to be more likely to be encountered by a person who will handle it poorly” thing.
- lastofthemojito 5y ago
  That's exactly my point. I got COVID. It was a mild case and I survived it with no issues. My case did feel like a common cold, as did so many others. I also know someone who died of COVID. That's the sneaky thing. It's almost as if the virus plays eeny, meeny, miny, moe - a bunch of us get a sore throat, and one person gets absolutely ravaged. It's very tempting not to put your life on hold when there's a really good chance you'll beat it. Of course, when vast numbers think that way, the virus spreads widely and many die. As to your "millions of people are not a big relative number" point - at the peak of the pandemic in the USA, COVID became the leading cause of death.[0] That seems fairly major in a relative sense. [0] https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/slide/covid-19-now-leading-cause-of-death-in-the-united-states/ https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/slide/covid-19-now-...