3 ms·
Not questioning the numbers but genuinely curious how the exponential math works in this case. Thanks
by josh_today 5y ago
Not questioning the numbers but genuinely curious how the exponential math works in this case. Thanks
- breck 5y agoFor an exponential process it takes roughly the same amount of time to go from 10 to 100 as it does to go from 100,000 to 1M, 10M to 100M, et cetera. So if you had a progress bar of an exponential progress, you'd want the % to be of the log, not the absolute number. Because even if you were at 100M/1B, in terms of time you would not be 10%, but rather 90%. Of course, this situation is dynamic, and there are more variables at play, but a baseline for thought for progress bar of exponential processes is to do log of the numbers.
- ianai 5y agoPer Google, the US is at 33 million total cases.
- breck 5y agoEstimates of true infection rate were around 100M in March. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-models https://ourworldindata.org/covid-models
- ianai 5y agoJust to tack on to this - the growth of the virus can be exponential. Seychelles (small island country) was at a high vaccination count but is currently experiencing an outbreak of covid. On the one hand, their case counts are up which sounds bad. On the other hand, they're not seeing the exponential growth in hospitalizations nor deaths - i.e. the vaccines are doing their jobs. Edit-But the effects of the vaccine aren't exponential. You really need to get a good population coverage to axe the thing. And outbreaks can still occur (though less deadly) when/if outsiders come in from populations less vaccinated.