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If you're talking about a 7 billion population, the deaths of which will vary from year to year, this seems like a number in the noise range which would be very
by rossdavidh 5y ago
If you're talking about a 7 billion population, the deaths of which will vary from year to year, this seems like a number in the noise range which would be very hard to distinguish from background variation.
If everyone of the 7b people lived 100 years, we would expect about 70 million deaths a year, and we know they don't live 100 years on average. Any reasonable range of assumptions puts this in the range of too-small-to-detect. Which doesn't mean it doesn't matter or isn't important, but it does mean that this is not a good method for estimating it.
- MattGaiser 5y agoDeaths don't actually vary that much year to year. Increase/decrease over time? Yes. Swing by 10 million in a year? No. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-number-of-deaths-by-world-region https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-number-of-deaths-b...
- tbenst 5y agoYou make a strong claim with no supporting evidence or analysis. On the other hand, we have roughly 3.3M (Econimist) or 3.4M (Financial, Times [1]) confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Is it so surprising that only 25-50% of actual deaths due to COVID-19 were confirmed? Why do you try to downplay that COVID-19 is the second most deadly pandemic in a century, after HIV/AIDS? [2] [1] https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938 https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386... [2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7866842/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7866842/
- rossdavidh 5y ago"...Which doesn't mean it doesn't matter or isn't important, but it does mean that this is not a good method for estimating it. "