4 ms·

The question is how much less death will there be in the years to come. Especially the older people who died earlier because of covid. We should see a decline i

by noxer 5y ago

The question is how much less death will there be in the years to come. Especially the older people who died earlier because of covid. We should see a decline in death from all kinds of diseases that these people had and would have died from/with.

glangdale 5y ago
This assumes that there are no long-term mortality effects from having COVID and not dying from it, which seems not proven at this stage. I mean, yes, we'll see fewer very old people dying of the flu next year, but idk whether we'll see a bunch of late middle age or 'not very old' people dying from long COVID.
virtuallynathan 5y ago
This is an effect referred to as "mortality displacement" -- it tends to happen with bad flu years, heat waves, etc: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement
jmull 5y ago
> …years to come Those years of life are still lost. It’s true they would have died eventually anyway. But that’s true of everyone.
- noxer 5y ago
  But day/weeks/month/years of life lost is not the same as what we understand if we say lives lost. Also we stooped helping people survives in the name of covid. Life extending treatments and surgery where paused to have resource for dying people. Whos gonna count the days/weeks/months/years these people lost? In the end everything just shifts number because we all die. I just think this virus mostly hit the people at risk of dying which should have been made it morally easier to let them die, rather than hurt others trying to keep them alive. But that's exactly what the western world did. I would understand it if children where affected. We would morally justify that someone with cancer dies a bit earlier if we can safe the life of someone who still has many years to come.

4 ms·

The question is how much less death will there be in the years to come. Especially the older people who died earlier because of covid. We should see a decline i

by noxer 5y ago

glangdale 5y ago
This assumes that there are no long-term mortality effects from having COVID and not dying from it, which seems not proven at this stage. I mean, yes, we'll see fewer very old people dying of the flu next year, but idk whether we'll see a bunch of late middle age or 'not very old' people dying from long COVID.
virtuallynathan 5y ago
This is an effect referred to as "mortality displacement" -- it tends to happen with bad flu years, heat waves, etc: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement
jmull 5y ago
> …years to come Those years of life are still lost. It’s true they would have died eventually anyway. But that’s true of everyone.
- noxer 5y ago
  But day/weeks/month/years of life lost is not the same as what we understand if we say lives lost. Also we stooped helping people survives in the name of covid. Life extending treatments and surgery where paused to have resource for dying people. Whos gonna count the days/weeks/months/years these people lost? In the end everything just shifts number because we all die. I just think this virus mostly hit the people at risk of dying which should have been made it morally easier to let them die, rather than hurt others trying to keep them alive. But that's exactly what the western world did. I would understand it if children where affected. We would morally justify that someone with cancer dies a bit earlier if we can safe the life of someone who still has many years to come.