5 ms·
100% COVID / vaccination isn't the end point. It's R_t < 1 for sustained amounts of time. Where the effective reproduction number depends on the basic reproduc
by ethbr0 6y ago
100% COVID / vaccination isn't the end point.
It's R_t < 1 for sustained amounts of time. Where the effective reproduction number depends on the basic reproduction number, and the number of susceptible people, which depends on the number of people who have had coronavirus infections / vaccinations & the durability of immunity.
So some amount < 100% of people infected / vaccinated will create enough spreading "distance" between that coronavirus won't be able to effectively reproduce, because the (limited) vulnerable hosts will be too "far" apart.
- teachingassist 6y agoI agree that you could place the condition on reproduction number - you really intend that the virus becomes extinct. But your 'less than 100% infected/vaccinated' is an assumption, not a guarantee. There's an ongoing possibility of immune escape.
- giantg2 6y ago"...you really intend that the virus becomes extinct." Which might not be possible due to many factors, including non-human hosts.
- teachingassist 6y ago> including non-human hosts. I'm inclined to think that infection by a non-human host would be a different virus with different circumstances (SARS-CoV-1 is considered different from SARS-CoV-2). Unless, you mean that our reaction to the pandemic globally has allowed a bunch of new non-human reservoirs to form.
- giantg2 6y agoRemember when they kill all those minks in Europe last year? They also say that some pets can get covid as well. So it's possible that non-human hosts could prevent eradication. Although it is possible that we get to the point of stuff like plague or hantavirus today - rodents are hosts but only a few people are infected each year and it fails to spread. But who knows.
- lolc 6y agoUnfortunately it looks like this virus will be endemic indefinitely. It has spread to animal and human reservoirs we can't reach. Likely it'll end up being another one of those colds that children develop partial immunity against and most everybody catches another mutant of it a few times through their life. We had the chance to eradicate it 16 months ago. But we weren't all ready. Now we'll have to live with it. And as it stands, if another one of those develops, we'll just blow it again. On a positive note: it looks like we got quick vaccination figured out. With "we" I mean humanity. One thing I do wonder is whether we will see permanent "Covid-free" zones such as Australia. Or whether they'll drop their guard after vaccinating.
- dham 6y agoCould it become chicken pox? Where it's nothing in children but much more deadlier in adults if you never got it?
- klmadfejno 6y agoThis is already mostly the case for covid. We just tend to think of chickenpox as a mostly childrens disease to begin with.