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>IDk what "artificially look like there's induced demand happening" means. Urbanists sometimes intentionally undercount existing traffic and overcount later tr
by maxsilver 5y ago
>IDk what "artificially look like there's induced demand happening" means.
Urbanists sometimes intentionally undercount existing traffic and overcount later traffic, to try to paint public transportation infrastructure in a bad light. "We widened the public transit freeway by an extra lane each way, and now it handles ~33% more people per day. See, freeways make traffic, public transportation is bad"
The public transit freeway in this instance did not make any new traffic. It moved traffic from other sidestreets, and it allowed people who were underserved by transport to finally get served by transport. But nothing new was created here.
It's like saying, "Hospital A has 100 sick patients and is full, but we can't build a new Hospital, because it will make more sick people". And then a new hospital B gets built, and they say, "see, before we had 100 patients, now we have 200 sick patients, the new hospital induced more sickness!" But in truth, the Hospital didn't "make" any sickness, it's treating patients that were previously uncounted or not getting treatment they needed -- that's why we wanted to build a new hospital in the first place.
> If we could we would travel many more KMs. 1000s of times more, if teleporting existed and made travel instantaneous. The cost of travel, is largely time.
Right, and that acts as a hard cap. You can't travel to two places at a time, and you aren't going to want to spend every second of your life traveling somewhere. So, unless you think Winnebago's are going to be a thing everyone lives and works out of 24/7/365, there's a very explicit hard cap on transportation usage.
If you make a teleporter between California and Japan (for example), then an urbanist could paint that as "your teleporter is bad, because it induced demand for trips to Japan". But it didn't -- for every one person in your teleporter, there's one less person on an international flight. Even if your teleporter makes trips to Japan more popular and common (because it's now faster + cheaper to get there), it still doesn't break this hard cap, those trips are disappearing from somewhere else.
I live in Michigan, I would normally never grab lunch in Japan. But if I leave to go to Japan for lunch (using your new teleporter), then I can't be driving on US-131 to pick up lunch back at home (a totally normal thing I would do today). I'm not going to suddenly eat 2 lunches just because your teleporter exists, so even though someone would argue you have "induced demand" for trips to Japan, you haven't really done so, you've just taken other trips and converted them.
The only way "induced demand" will ever apply to cars, is if that hard cap is broken somehow. Driverless cars, for example, could actually induce demand, since a car no longer has to have a person in it to take up traffic space, and plenty of people would send driverless cars around, there's no longer a natural hard cap on transit usage.
- dalbasal 5y agoIf you go to Japan for lunch, you are traveling more.
- tuatoru 5y ago> Right, and that acts as a hard cap. You can't travel to two places at a time, and you aren't going to want to spend every second of your life traveling somewhere. So, unless you think Winnebago's are going to be a thing everyone lives and works out of 24/7/365, there's a very explicit hard cap on transportation usage. This is why autonomous vehicles are concerning. It's going to become possible to consume a lot more transportation without using your own time. (Think: empty vehicles driving around rather than being parked, or empty autonomous taxis just driving around.)