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There is a chance that what we are observing is different from the past demand spikes. The way we work and learn has changed, and it doesn't look like a revers

There is a chance that what we are observing is different from the past demand spikes. The way we work and learn has changed, and it doesn't look like a reversion to pre-telework habits will ever fully occur. Several companies (including Salesforce, Twitter, Square, and Spotify) have said that telework will be a significant part of their post-pandemic reality. Meanwhile, electric vehicles are slowly but surely taking market share from internal combustion engines that use less than a third as much silicon. It feels like demand creation to me, and that means we ought to treat the prior capex roadmap for the industry as insufficient. Even in the absence of demand creation, fab concentration in Taiwan is increasingly a liability in a world where Chinese economic hegemony is growing. One way to mitigate future perturbations that may result from military conflict, natural disasters, or other interruptions in Taiwan's fabs would be to build greater capacity outside of Taiwan.

threeseed 5y ago
Also don't forget crypto which is still growing and demands custom hardware. And the continued move within the enterprise towards using cloud computing and SaaS products. No matter which way you look there is an increasing demand for silicon.
- vmception 5y ago
  And of course whatever the car manufacturers were doing
- nicoburns 5y ago
  Cryto may end up being a huge downturn in demand if it ever gets legislated against (not that unlikely if it's share of energy usage continues to grow significantly)
- Anarch157a 5y ago
  With Ethereum adopting proof of stake, Bitcoin will be left as the only driver for mining hardware. Even they will have to move to proof of stake some day, since it's not sustainable. I believe that the bigest drivers for silicon demand will be IoT devices, including automobiles, especialy when they become more affordable in the 3rd world. The pressure from SaaS and cloud is more predictable than the consume market, sonthe semi industry can plan ahead, IoT not so much. Just see how the auto industry was caught by surprise by the increased demand.
  - HappyTypist 5y ago
    There is about zero chance of bitcoin moving to proof of stake. Something so fundamental about its SHA256(SHA256())) PoW structure just isn't going to get changed, unless there's a vulnerability in SHA256.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
manquer 5y ago
Only very small portion of the workforce is tech, a smaller portion is employed by startups/silicon valley companies, a even smaller portion is directly on payroll of these companies, rest of the roles such as content moderators, support staff work for IT consultanting majors. there will be lasting change to to our lives and lives of people in our oribt. I don't think we appreciate that vast majority of the workforce (in transport, hospitality, retail, manufacturing) is not changing at all.

threeseed 5y ago

Also don't forget crypto which is still growing and demands custom hardware. And the continued move within the enterprise towards using cloud computing and SaaS products. No matter which way you look there is an increasing demand for silicon.

vmception 5y ago
And of course whatever the car manufacturers were doing
nicoburns 5y ago
Cryto may end up being a huge downturn in demand if it ever gets legislated against (not that unlikely if it's share of energy usage continues to grow significantly)
Anarch157a 5y ago
With Ethereum adopting proof of stake, Bitcoin will be left as the only driver for mining hardware. Even they will have to move to proof of stake some day, since it's not sustainable. I believe that the bigest drivers for silicon demand will be IoT devices, including automobiles, especialy when they become more affordable in the 3rd world. The pressure from SaaS and cloud is more predictable than the consume market, sonthe semi industry can plan ahead, IoT not so much. Just see how the auto industry was caught by surprise by the increased demand.
- HappyTypist 5y ago
  There is about zero chance of bitcoin moving to proof of stake. Something so fundamental about its SHA256(SHA256())) PoW structure just isn't going to get changed, unless there's a vulnerability in SHA256.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]

manquer 5y ago

Only very small portion of the workforce is tech, a smaller portion is employed by startups/silicon valley companies, a even smaller portion is directly on payroll of these companies, rest of the roles such as content moderators, support staff work for IT consultanting majors. there will be lasting change to to our lives and lives of people in our oribt. I don't think we appreciate that vast majority of the workforce (in transport, hospitality, retail, manufacturing) is not changing at all.