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A human would have seen what all the other cars were doing, and emulated that eventually, even if the construction was poorly marked. It was incredible to watc

A human would have seen what all the other cars were doing, and emulated that eventually, even if the construction was poorly marked. It was incredible to watch how Waymo was able to plot the huge number of cars accurately around the vehicle throughout the drive. But as soon as something creative was required, it all fell apart. I still remember a talk where someone from the original DARPA challenge was recounting an episode where two autonomous cars arrived at an intersection precisely at the same time. They deadlocked because they were waiting for each other to go. A programmer added jitter to work around that situation, but it is one of those things humans innately would figure out.

raverbashing 5y ago
> A human would have seen what all the other cars were doing, and emulated that eventually, even if the construction was poorly marked. I have a hunch that 90% of self-driving could be solved like that, but then there's always that 10% of situations where there's nobody in front or someone who doesn't know what they're doing. But yes it would be a good heuristic.
- mannykannot 5y ago
  Until, in this case, the car in front made a left turn.
  - angry_octet 5y ago
    But it would still have escaped the deadlock it was in.
    - mannykannot 5y ago
      In this case, if it followed the car ahead through a left turn, then that would be so, but if it did not, and it were still in the section of road restricted by the cones, it would have become stuck again, just as it did after it made the initial turn onto the restricted road. The thing is, the strategy of 'follow other traffic' needs exit rules, and while it is relatively straightforward to begin the strategy when stuck, deciding when to abandon it is less clear-cut. Did the left-turning vehicle do so because this was the correct way to deal with the problem, or did it have a different goal?
- microtherion 5y ago
  I'm reminded of Douglas Adams: "He had a tremendous propensity for getting lost when driving. This was largely because of his method of “Zen” navigation, which was simply to find any car that looked as if it knew where it was going and follow it. The results were more often surprising than successful, but he felt it was worth it for the sake of the few occasions when it was both."
iamtedd 5y ago
> A programmer added jitter to work around that situation, A random sleep to avoid a race condition. If a bunch of randoms on the Internet can think of using the other vehicles as guides for the right way to go, why hasn't Waymo? Also, why don't the roadside assistance people or the woman on the phone not have an off button to stop their cars randomly taking off on them? Other machinery has an e-stop, why not this?
- randompwd 5y ago
  I don't know if you're new to this whole technology thing but the answer a lot of the times is: things are more complicated than the simple words that can be used to describe the thing.
- Isinlor 5y ago
  Most likely because there are tradeoffs. Tesla is using other vehicles as guides, so it is possible.
  - ajross 5y ago
    Exactly. There's a famous video out there from a few years back showing Tesla autopilot dutifully following a BMW at highway speeds. Then the BMW suddenly swerves around a stopped vehicle in front of it at the last minute, and the AP doesn't have time to recognize the object and come to a full stop, so it runs right into it. (The object is a fake baloon car, but the situation was real enough.) Tesla has since improved recognition to prevent that situation, but the point remains: blindly following other vehicles is a common mistake. Remember all the "Do Not Follow" signs on construction vehicles?
rasz 5y ago
>incredible to watch how Waymo was able to plot the huge number of cars accurately around the vehicle throughout the drive 4:30 look at the cars coming from the left and turning right (down the screen). Google hallucinates two cars right there, and thats just the start of the half hour journey.
jannes 5y ago
> A human would have seen what all the other cars were doing, and emulated that eventually, even if the construction was poorly marked. Google are probably planning for 100% of the cars on the road being AI-controlled, at which point it no longer makes sense to copy other car’s behaviour, because they are all AIs. Seeing how monopolistic Google is in other areas, it would not surprise me if they are chasing a self-driving monopoly, too.

raverbashing 5y ago

> A human would have seen what all the other cars were doing, and emulated that eventually, even if the construction was poorly marked. I have a hunch that 90% of self-driving could be solved like that, but then there's always that 10% of situations where there's nobody in front or someone who doesn't know what they're doing. But yes it would be a good heuristic.

mannykannot 5y ago
Until, in this case, the car in front made a left turn.
- angry_octet 5y ago
  But it would still have escaped the deadlock it was in.
  - mannykannot 5y ago
    In this case, if it followed the car ahead through a left turn, then that would be so, but if it did not, and it were still in the section of road restricted by the cones, it would have become stuck again, just as it did after it made the initial turn onto the restricted road. The thing is, the strategy of 'follow other traffic' needs exit rules, and while it is relatively straightforward to begin the strategy when stuck, deciding when to abandon it is less clear-cut. Did the left-turning vehicle do so because this was the correct way to deal with the problem, or did it have a different goal?
microtherion 5y ago
I'm reminded of Douglas Adams: "He had a tremendous propensity for getting lost when driving. This was largely because of his method of “Zen” navigation, which was simply to find any car that looked as if it knew where it was going and follow it. The results were more often surprising than successful, but he felt it was worth it for the sake of the few occasions when it was both."

iamtedd 5y ago

> A programmer added jitter to work around that situation, A random sleep to avoid a race condition. If a bunch of randoms on the Internet can think of using the other vehicles as guides for the right way to go, why hasn't Waymo? Also, why don't the roadside assistance people or the woman on the phone not have an off button to stop their cars randomly taking off on them? Other machinery has an e-stop, why not this?

randompwd 5y ago
I don't know if you're new to this whole technology thing but the answer a lot of the times is: things are more complicated than the simple words that can be used to describe the thing.
Isinlor 5y ago
Most likely because there are tradeoffs. Tesla is using other vehicles as guides, so it is possible.
- ajross 5y ago
  Exactly. There's a famous video out there from a few years back showing Tesla autopilot dutifully following a BMW at highway speeds. Then the BMW suddenly swerves around a stopped vehicle in front of it at the last minute, and the AP doesn't have time to recognize the object and come to a full stop, so it runs right into it. (The object is a fake baloon car, but the situation was real enough.) Tesla has since improved recognition to prevent that situation, but the point remains: blindly following other vehicles is a common mistake. Remember all the "Do Not Follow" signs on construction vehicles?

rasz 5y ago

>incredible to watch how Waymo was able to plot the huge number of cars accurately around the vehicle throughout the drive 4:30 look at the cars coming from the left and turning right (down the screen). Google hallucinates two cars right there, and thats just the start of the half hour journey.

jannes 5y ago

> A human would have seen what all the other cars were doing, and emulated that eventually, even if the construction was poorly marked. Google are probably planning for 100% of the cars on the road being AI-controlled, at which point it no longer makes sense to copy other car’s behaviour, because they are all AIs. Seeing how monopolistic Google is in other areas, it would not surprise me if they are chasing a self-driving monopoly, too.