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Good. Of course I'm not expecting anyone to prove a negative, but the lab leak theory was dismissed with very little evidence to the contrary. We know other vir

by dqv 5y ago

Good. Of course I'm not expecting anyone to prove a negative, but the lab leak theory was dismissed with very little evidence to the contrary. We know other viruses have leaked from labs before [0]. I think part of the resistance to accepting this possibility was that it was strongly associated with Trump supporters. I'm glad people won't be able to use the "that's a Trump supporter theory" bludgeon and we can start hearing experts talk about this in good faith. [0]: https://youtu.be/HKQDSgBHPfY?t=214 https://youtu.be/HKQDSgBHPfY?t=214 (thanks to whichever HNer posted this initially - not even sure if it had to do with a covid discussion)

RachelF 5y ago
The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists released a long, but well argued article on the lab leak theory: https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/ https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-peop... It appears the US was sponsoring "gain of function" tests on corona viruses at the Wuhan lab as they were banned as too dangerous in the US and EU.
babelfish 5y ago
That’s kind of the opposite of how evidence works
- dqv 5y ago
  I tire of this type of comment on HN. There's a pervasive smug tone that doesn't do anything for the conversation. Are you here to have a good faith conversation or not? The evidence to the contrary would be strong evidence in favor of the other theory. We currently have little evidence to prove either, so dismissing one in favor of the other is foolish.
- bassman9000 5y ago
  "Evidence not yet provided" != "No evidence provided" The Higgs boson was theorized in the mid 60s. Final evidence not found till a few years ago. It's was a valid theory until then. It is exactly how it works: theory is good enough that working to find the evidence pays off. And there wasn't a strong incentive NOT to find the boson, such in the lab case. Some US institutions and actors, and the CCP, would be hit by liabilities, severely, if the theory is proven true. Not only careers (rightfully) ruined, but heavy sanctions, and international condemnation, given the damage. So there's a strong incentive to shoot down the theory, even if it's the most logical one.
Exmoor 5y ago
> the lab leak theory was dismissed with very little evidence to the contrary And the "evidence" to the contrary was largely a letter to the editor from people with major conflicts of interest[0]: >It later turned out that the Lancet letter had been organized and drafted by Peter Daszak, president of the EcoHealth Alliance of New York. Daszak’s organization funded coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. If the SARS2 virus had indeed escaped from research he funded, Daszak would be potentially culpable. This acute conflict of interest was not declared to the Lancet’s readers. To the contrary, the letter concluded, “We declare no competing interests.” [0]https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/ https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-peop...
- dvfjsdhgfv 5y ago
  As far as I understood, this is an open issue and Daszak still has to respond: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/congress-is-finally-investigating-the-lab-accident-covid-19-origin-theory/2021/05/06/d7bfb0e4-aeaf-11eb-b476-c3b287e52a01_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/cong...
belltaco 5y ago
>I think part of the resistance to accepting this possibility was that it was strongly associated with Trump supporters. I'm glad people won't be able to use the "that's a Trump supporter theory" bludgeon and we can start hearing experts talk about this in good faith. I still don't understand how they're ready to blame China so viciously for something that they tell us is just a flu and not even worth using face coverings or risking taking a vaccine. Not to mention magic cures like HCQ. All these efforts were just to deflect from the last government's failure to contain the virus. And they're not even internally consistent with each other. "The virus is not dangerous, the left is just hyping and faking it. But the not-dangerous virus is completely China and Fauci's dangerous fault and they must be raked over the coals for it so Trump doesn't have to take any responsibility". The whole thing is an insult to intelligence for anyone that doesn't just believe what they're told to. Regardless of where the virus came from, it'll keep happening like it did in history when there no labs, either naturally, a lab escape or a bio weapon. The right way is to be prepared for it, and take collective action to stop global pandemics.
- dqv 5y ago
  >I still don't understand how they're ready to blame China so viciously for something that they tell us is just a flu and not even worth using face coverings or risking taking a vaccine. Not to mention magic cures like HCQ. All these efforts were just to deflect from the last government's failure to contain the virus. And they're not even internally consistent with each other. "The virus is not dangerous, the left is just hyping and faking it. But the not-dangerous virus is completely China and Fauci's dangerous fault and they must be raked over the coals for it so Trump doesn't have to take any responsibility". This is more a collective inconsistency than an individual inconsistency. But yes these issues when layered with politics tend to just use whichever spaghetto sticks to the wall. >Regardless of where the virus came from, it'll keep happening like it did in history when there no labs, either naturally, a lab escape or a bio weapon. The right way is to be prepared for it, and take collective action to stop global pandemics. I still think it's important to find out where it came from. If leaked from a lab, what was done wrong that can be avoided in the future? If it really did happen out in the wild, how can monitoring be improved? The Trump administration was wholly ineffective at stopping it, but it's not like decisive action in the US would have stopped it from spreading elsewhere. Bolsonaro would still be president of Brazil. There is utility in getting as close to what really happened as possible and trying to mitigate it. Maybe virologists working directly with pathogens should have to wear masks out in public all the time. >The right way is to be prepared for it, and take collective action to stop global pandemics. I know this whole thing has changed me and I will be continuing to wear a mask in public well after the mask mandates have ended. Possibly forever.

by dqv 5y ago

RachelF 5y ago

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists released a long, but well argued article on the lab leak theory: https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/ https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-peop... It appears the US was sponsoring "gain of function" tests on corona viruses at the Wuhan lab as they were banned as too dangerous in the US and EU.

babelfish 5y ago

That’s kind of the opposite of how evidence works

dqv 5y ago
I tire of this type of comment on HN. There's a pervasive smug tone that doesn't do anything for the conversation. Are you here to have a good faith conversation or not? The evidence to the contrary would be strong evidence in favor of the other theory. We currently have little evidence to prove either, so dismissing one in favor of the other is foolish.
bassman9000 5y ago
"Evidence not yet provided" != "No evidence provided" The Higgs boson was theorized in the mid 60s. Final evidence not found till a few years ago. It's was a valid theory until then. It is exactly how it works: theory is good enough that working to find the evidence pays off. And there wasn't a strong incentive NOT to find the boson, such in the lab case. Some US institutions and actors, and the CCP, would be hit by liabilities, severely, if the theory is proven true. Not only careers (rightfully) ruined, but heavy sanctions, and international condemnation, given the damage. So there's a strong incentive to shoot down the theory, even if it's the most logical one.

Exmoor 5y ago

> the lab leak theory was dismissed with very little evidence to the contrary And the "evidence" to the contrary was largely a letter to the editor from people with major conflicts of interest[0]: >It later turned out that the Lancet letter had been organized and drafted by Peter Daszak, president of the EcoHealth Alliance of New York. Daszak’s organization funded coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. If the SARS2 virus had indeed escaped from research he funded, Daszak would be potentially culpable. This acute conflict of interest was not declared to the Lancet’s readers. To the contrary, the letter concluded, “We declare no competing interests.” [0]https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/ https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-peop...

dvfjsdhgfv 5y ago
As far as I understood, this is an open issue and Daszak still has to respond: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/congress-is-finally-investigating-the-lab-accident-covid-19-origin-theory/2021/05/06/d7bfb0e4-aeaf-11eb-b476-c3b287e52a01_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/cong...

belltaco 5y ago

>I think part of the resistance to accepting this possibility was that it was strongly associated with Trump supporters. I'm glad people won't be able to use the "that's a Trump supporter theory" bludgeon and we can start hearing experts talk about this in good faith. I still don't understand how they're ready to blame China so viciously for something that they tell us is just a flu and not even worth using face coverings or risking taking a vaccine. Not to mention magic cures like HCQ. All these efforts were just to deflect from the last government's failure to contain the virus. And they're not even internally consistent with each other. "The virus is not dangerous, the left is just hyping and faking it. But the not-dangerous virus is completely China and Fauci's dangerous fault and they must be raked over the coals for it so Trump doesn't have to take any responsibility". The whole thing is an insult to intelligence for anyone that doesn't just believe what they're told to. Regardless of where the virus came from, it'll keep happening like it did in history when there no labs, either naturally, a lab escape or a bio weapon. The right way is to be prepared for it, and take collective action to stop global pandemics.

dqv 5y ago
>I still don't understand how they're ready to blame China so viciously for something that they tell us is just a flu and not even worth using face coverings or risking taking a vaccine. Not to mention magic cures like HCQ. All these efforts were just to deflect from the last government's failure to contain the virus. And they're not even internally consistent with each other. "The virus is not dangerous, the left is just hyping and faking it. But the not-dangerous virus is completely China and Fauci's dangerous fault and they must be raked over the coals for it so Trump doesn't have to take any responsibility". This is more a collective inconsistency than an individual inconsistency. But yes these issues when layered with politics tend to just use whichever spaghetto sticks to the wall. >Regardless of where the virus came from, it'll keep happening like it did in history when there no labs, either naturally, a lab escape or a bio weapon. The right way is to be prepared for it, and take collective action to stop global pandemics. I still think it's important to find out where it came from. If leaked from a lab, what was done wrong that can be avoided in the future? If it really did happen out in the wild, how can monitoring be improved? The Trump administration was wholly ineffective at stopping it, but it's not like decisive action in the US would have stopped it from spreading elsewhere. Bolsonaro would still be president of Brazil. There is utility in getting as close to what really happened as possible and trying to mitigate it. Maybe virologists working directly with pathogens should have to wear masks out in public all the time. >The right way is to be prepared for it, and take collective action to stop global pandemics. I know this whole thing has changed me and I will be continuing to wear a mask in public well after the mask mandates have ended. Possibly forever.