Sorry it took me so long to get back to this; real life intervenes sometimes. I think what I was trying to do was frame the original Monty Hall problem as a va

Sorry it took me so long to get back to this; real life intervenes sometimes. I think what I was trying to do was frame the original Monty Hall problem as a variant of Monty Fall, in a way that (I hoped) makes it clear where Monty is doing work to convert some outcomes into other outcomes (and therefore producing different likelihoods).