3 ms·

I've always wondered this since COVID hit. Why has this not happened more frequently? If it were a natural event, why are we not constantly being bombarded with

I've always wondered this since COVID hit. Why has this not happened more frequently? If it were a natural event, why are we not constantly being bombarded with these things? And what happens when we get 3, 4, 5 different ones at once? I'm no conspiracy theorist. But Occam's Razor leans heavily to the side of COVID being a man made catastrophe when you think about that.

JPKab 5y ago
https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/ https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-peop... The most likely origin of this virus at this point, was an accidental lab leak due to a quirk in regulations where BSL 2 was the category approved for normal coronaviruses, and BSL 3 was reserved for the natural strains that already infected humans like SARS 1 and MERS. Unfortunately nobody in the lab bothered to question whether they should be using BSL 3 gear when they were breeding bat born Corona viruses with humanized mice. That's the most likely explanation: This doesn't happen too frequently because normally somebody has the brains to ask themselves if the virus they are creating requires a greater level of protective gear than what the rules call for. For anyone that questions this comment and thinks that I'm some lunatic pushing conspiracy theories feel free to look at the NIH grant that funded this research and noticed the specific phrase of humanized mice. https://reporter.nih.gov/search/xQW6UJmWfUuOV01ntGvLwQ/project-details/8674931#details https://reporter.nih.gov/search/xQW6UJmWfUuOV01ntGvLwQ/proje... Bear in mind that in the early 2000s it only took 4 months to find the intermediate host between bats and humans. For mers it took 9 months to identify camels as the intermediate host. Despite having orders of magnitude more funding nobody has found an intermediate animal host for covid-19. Common sense tells you there was an intermediate host and it was the humanized mice in the laboratory.
- aphextron 5y ago
  And I'm sure I'll be downvoted to oblivion for even bring it up. But the evidence, as you've explained, has increasingly been mounting. I was all in on calling people Sinophobic for even suggesting this in the first few months. But there's simply no other plausible explanation at this point. And Beijing has been completely unresponsive in even denying it.
  - JPKab 5y ago
    I too allowed my brain to be hijacked by my hatred for Trump. I allowed my biases to cause me to essentially outsource my decision-making to my enemy who then by aggressively going for a conclusion in a manner that was too early for concrete evidence, caused me to embrace the alternative explanation which itself frankly defied a lot of logic. I'm very embarrassed about this and it's something I have to confront about my own brains weaknesses. Why is that? It's quite a coincidence for a bat born Corona virus that is unusually adept at infecting human lung tissue to emerge in the same exact city as the world's leading batborn Corona virus research center. For this to not be related to anything in that research facility is starting to border on improbable but of course could happen. However when you combine this with the way the Chinese authorities behaved, and then add into this fact that they still cannot find any form of intermediate animal host no matter how much effort is expended, it really starts to push the natural-born theory to a high degree of improbability. I owe many of my friends a huge apology over this. It's not fun but I'm calling them one by one to apologize because I feel like it will remind me in the future to check my own cognitive biases before jumping to conclusions. I lament the fact that the majority of the public that did the same thing as me will never question their own judgment or stop to wonder why they were manipulated so aggressively by a media that was more concerned with confirming the biases of their audience and themselves than seeking out real truth.
    - cipher_system 5y ago
      Wouldn't it make a lot of sense to locate a bat born Corona virus research center in a region with a lot of bat born Corona viruses?
      - JPKab 5y ago
        That's not the region where they come from. They are primarily collected from their locations of origin which is in Yunnan. This is not to say that there are not horseshoe bats in Wuhan although they don't like urban areas and live in the outskirts. It's simply to state that the concentration of viruses that have escaped into animal populations and then humans are all concentrated in Yunnan. I assure you this is very uncomfortable information for me and I was horrified while reading it because I didn't want to believe it. It's especially alarming to me because I'm concerned about the geopolitical implications of people in nations like India gradually realizing this. I am not foolish enough to make conclusions yet because I do believe it's too early but as of now the likelihood of origin has shifted strongly in favor of an accidental lab escape. The animal transmission model via nature simply requires numerous highly improbable events for it to be the culprit. This doesn't rule it out it's simply makes it a lower probability of occurrence.
- one2three4 5y ago
  That's what I think as well. What I really want to see is proof though and then the answer to the burning question: so if due to negligence these guys caused immeasurable losses...who's paying for that? I can't believe that the answer to that will be nobody. This was not an act of God (I think that's the legal term for non-manmade catastrophes where it doesn't make sense to ask for reparations). And I don't only refer to the initial mistake but also the subsequent ones by both China state and the Western states neglecting WHO etc.
groby_b 5y ago
Occam's Razor thinks you might want to go to a library and read about power law distributions. We do have continual events. Most are extremely localized and small. Some reach the "local intervention" stage. A tiny percentage of those reaches the "newspapers elsewhere write about it stage". Occasionally, you get regional crises (SARS/MERS, for example). We finally got a global one. And yes, there are simultaneous outbreaks. All the time. We had, during the middle of Covid, several Ebola outbreaks in Africa. There was likely a large number of avian flu events that just didn't affect people because it was lost in the noise.
gmuslera 5y ago
COVID had some some circunstances that helped becoming so widespread. It takes several days for someone to caught it to develop symptoms, if ever. It happened at a moment in time and place with very high connectivity with the rest of the world You have far less odds of having severe symptoms (specially in the main/original variants), if any, if you are young enough. That is a good age for international travel (and spreading) and to not not care about consequences for others. And, last but not least, the influence of social networks and agents on them, that denied that the disease was a risk, that people should not take measures, and now that you should not vaccinate. And conspiracy theories, of course.

JPKab 5y ago

https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/ https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-peop... The most likely origin of this virus at this point, was an accidental lab leak due to a quirk in regulations where BSL 2 was the category approved for normal coronaviruses, and BSL 3 was reserved for the natural strains that already infected humans like SARS 1 and MERS. Unfortunately nobody in the lab bothered to question whether they should be using BSL 3 gear when they were breeding bat born Corona viruses with humanized mice. That's the most likely explanation: This doesn't happen too frequently because normally somebody has the brains to ask themselves if the virus they are creating requires a greater level of protective gear than what the rules call for. For anyone that questions this comment and thinks that I'm some lunatic pushing conspiracy theories feel free to look at the NIH grant that funded this research and noticed the specific phrase of humanized mice. https://reporter.nih.gov/search/xQW6UJmWfUuOV01ntGvLwQ/project-details/8674931#details https://reporter.nih.gov/search/xQW6UJmWfUuOV01ntGvLwQ/proje... Bear in mind that in the early 2000s it only took 4 months to find the intermediate host between bats and humans. For mers it took 9 months to identify camels as the intermediate host. Despite having orders of magnitude more funding nobody has found an intermediate animal host for covid-19. Common sense tells you there was an intermediate host and it was the humanized mice in the laboratory.

aphextron 5y ago
And I'm sure I'll be downvoted to oblivion for even bring it up. But the evidence, as you've explained, has increasingly been mounting. I was all in on calling people Sinophobic for even suggesting this in the first few months. But there's simply no other plausible explanation at this point. And Beijing has been completely unresponsive in even denying it.
- JPKab 5y ago
  I too allowed my brain to be hijacked by my hatred for Trump. I allowed my biases to cause me to essentially outsource my decision-making to my enemy who then by aggressively going for a conclusion in a manner that was too early for concrete evidence, caused me to embrace the alternative explanation which itself frankly defied a lot of logic. I'm very embarrassed about this and it's something I have to confront about my own brains weaknesses. Why is that? It's quite a coincidence for a bat born Corona virus that is unusually adept at infecting human lung tissue to emerge in the same exact city as the world's leading batborn Corona virus research center. For this to not be related to anything in that research facility is starting to border on improbable but of course could happen. However when you combine this with the way the Chinese authorities behaved, and then add into this fact that they still cannot find any form of intermediate animal host no matter how much effort is expended, it really starts to push the natural-born theory to a high degree of improbability. I owe many of my friends a huge apology over this. It's not fun but I'm calling them one by one to apologize because I feel like it will remind me in the future to check my own cognitive biases before jumping to conclusions. I lament the fact that the majority of the public that did the same thing as me will never question their own judgment or stop to wonder why they were manipulated so aggressively by a media that was more concerned with confirming the biases of their audience and themselves than seeking out real truth.
  - cipher_system 5y ago
    Wouldn't it make a lot of sense to locate a bat born Corona virus research center in a region with a lot of bat born Corona viruses?
    - JPKab 5y ago
      That's not the region where they come from. They are primarily collected from their locations of origin which is in Yunnan. This is not to say that there are not horseshoe bats in Wuhan although they don't like urban areas and live in the outskirts. It's simply to state that the concentration of viruses that have escaped into animal populations and then humans are all concentrated in Yunnan. I assure you this is very uncomfortable information for me and I was horrified while reading it because I didn't want to believe it. It's especially alarming to me because I'm concerned about the geopolitical implications of people in nations like India gradually realizing this. I am not foolish enough to make conclusions yet because I do believe it's too early but as of now the likelihood of origin has shifted strongly in favor of an accidental lab escape. The animal transmission model via nature simply requires numerous highly improbable events for it to be the culprit. This doesn't rule it out it's simply makes it a lower probability of occurrence.
one2three4 5y ago
That's what I think as well. What I really want to see is proof though and then the answer to the burning question: so if due to negligence these guys caused immeasurable losses...who's paying for that? I can't believe that the answer to that will be nobody. This was not an act of God (I think that's the legal term for non-manmade catastrophes where it doesn't make sense to ask for reparations). And I don't only refer to the initial mistake but also the subsequent ones by both China state and the Western states neglecting WHO etc.

groby_b 5y ago

Occam's Razor thinks you might want to go to a library and read about power law distributions. We do have continual events. Most are extremely localized and small. Some reach the "local intervention" stage. A tiny percentage of those reaches the "newspapers elsewhere write about it stage". Occasionally, you get regional crises (SARS/MERS, for example). We finally got a global one. And yes, there are simultaneous outbreaks. All the time. We had, during the middle of Covid, several Ebola outbreaks in Africa. There was likely a large number of avian flu events that just didn't affect people because it was lost in the noise.

gmuslera 5y ago

COVID had some some circunstances that helped becoming so widespread. It takes several days for someone to caught it to develop symptoms, if ever. It happened at a moment in time and place with very high connectivity with the rest of the world You have far less odds of having severe symptoms (specially in the main/original variants), if any, if you are young enough. That is a good age for international travel (and spreading) and to not not care about consequences for others. And, last but not least, the influence of social networks and agents on them, that denied that the disease was a risk, that people should not take measures, and now that you should not vaccinate. And conspiracy theories, of course.