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No. Detroit became a wasteland well within our lifetimes. Whether this happens for California soon or not soon is well outside the realm of "preposterous." Your

No. Detroit became a wasteland well within our lifetimes. Whether this happens for California soon or not soon is well outside the realm of "preposterous." Your post is not just off by a word, it is entirely off.

epistasis 5y ago
I think that our fundamental disagreement comes down to whether California is currently in that downturn. I would say no, and if I understand your position, you would say yes. Is that a fair assessment?
- neonological 5y ago
  No it is not. Why don't you read my posts again. California is currently trending downward in certain metrics related to economics but this is entirely different from being in an "economic downturn." California going into an economic downturn in the future is a 100 percent possibility. CA and the entire united States goes through economic downturns about roughly every decade and this has been going on for centuries. The economy is proovably cyclical. Either way what Im saying is that the current metrics of migration show that California MAY become an economic waste land like Detroit. This is much worse than a economic downturn. Keyword: may, meaning not outside the realm of fantasy and also not a guarantee, but very very possible. What is absolutely clear though is that if these metrics of negative brain drain continues then absolutely CA will become an economic wasteland.
  - epistasis 5y ago
    I have a feeling that further discussion will not be productive, as your other posts do not contain hints of what you say in this comment, and this comment is a big change in what you were saying before in comments. I'm not sure why California's in-migration of the highly educated with high incomes, and out-migration of less educated folks counts as a brain drain. I'm not sure why you insist on an economic downturn in California in several comments, but now say that's not the case. Just letting you know why I'm stopping interaction.
    - neonological 5y ago
      You know what would be productive? Statistical numbers. You cannot deny the productiveness of real factual numbers. The brain drain consists of measurable negative population growth. More people moving out then people coming in, in aggregate. Additionally the real numbers show that California natives are the ones that are mostly leaving. This. Is. A. Statistical. Number. If negative population continues by raw logic after the population is small enough, California or any state would indeed become an economic wasteland. There is no opinion here. This is fundamental fact. You're stopping this interaction as the discussion increases in productivity while I start citing more and more real numbers and real sources and undeniable logic that you are finding harder and harder to twist to fit your world view. I think the reality of what's going on here is that the discussion is becoming too productive. It is an exposing a world view you are too biased to accept.
      - epistasis 5y ago
        I know this is not worth revising, but you didn't cite any statistics. California is not losing population, it's just growing slower than the rest of the country. There is no "brain drain," as those moving in have higher education than those leaving. International immigration, in particular, is making up for the domestic net out-migration: https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265 https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265 You haven't cited a single number, or a single fact. You accuse me of bias, but shift your phrasing and points on nearly every comment. Your only support is a YouTube video that is heavy on propaganda techniques but says nothing of substance for the first third.
        neonological 5y ago
        You need to read what I said. What I said is this. California is displaying downward trends. If the population growth is trending downward that means the growth of intelligent people should also by logic be trending downwards. This is 100 percent brain drain. Let me explain it to you so you can understand. If this trend continues it will eventually become net population decrease. Which means a net loss of intelligent people. I haven't shifted points. You think I'm shifting points because you are misinterpreting everything I say and I am re clarifying it for you so your brain can comprehend. But your brain is registering this as me shifting topics. Literally read the thread. You asked me if I'm debating if California is in an economic downturn... And if you look at the entire damn thread... I never said California was in an economic downturn. You assumed this is what I'm saying because you're the one with bias here. I corrected your mistake. You want citations for things that have been Frontline news and evident for every normal person living in this state? The initial YouTube video was CNBC, which you disregarded as bad because of "YouTube". So I guess journalism in the form of a video is illegitimate for you... I guess written articles are more factual for some illogical reason? Fine. Here you go. https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2021-04-27/census-shows-california-population-growth-at-a-record-low https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2021-04-27/... https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-12-21/california-population-continues-to-decline-with-state-emigration-a-major-factor https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-12-21/californ... https://calmatters.org/commentary/2021/05/california-population-decline-drop/ https://calmatters.org/commentary/2021/05/california-populat... https://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-stalled-population-growth/ https://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-stalled-population-gro... https://abc7.com/california-population-decline-congressional-seat/10594297/ https://abc7.com/california-population-decline-congressional... https://qz.com/1599150/californias-population-could-start-shrinking-very-soon/ https://qz.com/1599150/californias-population-could-start-sh... https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/03/31/why-californias-population-boom-has-stalled/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/03/31/why-calif... https://www.kqed.org/news/11872755/california-reports-first-ever-yearly-population-decline https://www.kqed.org/news/11872755/california-reports-first-... https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-to-lose-seat-in-Congress-for-first-16130065.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-to-l... Now I could cite the raw statistics these articles derive their info from. But I felt legitimate news organizations are enough and easier then a raw statistical paper. Let's not get overly pedantic. Do you really want to argue against sfchronicle, quartz, CNBC and the Washington post? I hope to God you're not that type of person. I also hope this was "productive" for you. My definition of productive means imparting new knowledge onto someone less knowledgeable than me. But for some people "productive" means not admitting when they are wrong, refusing to look at raw evidence, and running away from a discussion where they are incorrect. Yeah you can leave this conversation if you feel it isn't "productive." Go. Leave.

epistasis 5y ago

I think that our fundamental disagreement comes down to whether California is currently in that downturn. I would say no, and if I understand your position, you would say yes. Is that a fair assessment?

neonological 5y ago
No it is not. Why don't you read my posts again. California is currently trending downward in certain metrics related to economics but this is entirely different from being in an "economic downturn." California going into an economic downturn in the future is a 100 percent possibility. CA and the entire united States goes through economic downturns about roughly every decade and this has been going on for centuries. The economy is proovably cyclical. Either way what Im saying is that the current metrics of migration show that California MAY become an economic waste land like Detroit. This is much worse than a economic downturn. Keyword: may, meaning not outside the realm of fantasy and also not a guarantee, but very very possible. What is absolutely clear though is that if these metrics of negative brain drain continues then absolutely CA will become an economic wasteland.
- epistasis 5y ago
  I have a feeling that further discussion will not be productive, as your other posts do not contain hints of what you say in this comment, and this comment is a big change in what you were saying before in comments. I'm not sure why California's in-migration of the highly educated with high incomes, and out-migration of less educated folks counts as a brain drain. I'm not sure why you insist on an economic downturn in California in several comments, but now say that's not the case. Just letting you know why I'm stopping interaction.
  - neonological 5y ago
    You know what would be productive? Statistical numbers. You cannot deny the productiveness of real factual numbers. The brain drain consists of measurable negative population growth. More people moving out then people coming in, in aggregate. Additionally the real numbers show that California natives are the ones that are mostly leaving. This. Is. A. Statistical. Number. If negative population continues by raw logic after the population is small enough, California or any state would indeed become an economic wasteland. There is no opinion here. This is fundamental fact. You're stopping this interaction as the discussion increases in productivity while I start citing more and more real numbers and real sources and undeniable logic that you are finding harder and harder to twist to fit your world view. I think the reality of what's going on here is that the discussion is becoming too productive. It is an exposing a world view you are too biased to accept.
    - epistasis 5y ago
      I know this is not worth revising, but you didn't cite any statistics. California is not losing population, it's just growing slower than the rest of the country. There is no "brain drain," as those moving in have higher education than those leaving. International immigration, in particular, is making up for the domestic net out-migration: https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265 https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265 You haven't cited a single number, or a single fact. You accuse me of bias, but shift your phrasing and points on nearly every comment. Your only support is a YouTube video that is heavy on propaganda techniques but says nothing of substance for the first third.
      - neonological 5y ago
        You need to read what I said. What I said is this. California is displaying downward trends. If the population growth is trending downward that means the growth of intelligent people should also by logic be trending downwards. This is 100 percent brain drain. Let me explain it to you so you can understand. If this trend continues it will eventually become net population decrease. Which means a net loss of intelligent people. I haven't shifted points. You think I'm shifting points because you are misinterpreting everything I say and I am re clarifying it for you so your brain can comprehend. But your brain is registering this as me shifting topics. Literally read the thread. You asked me if I'm debating if California is in an economic downturn... And if you look at the entire damn thread... I never said California was in an economic downturn. You assumed this is what I'm saying because you're the one with bias here. I corrected your mistake. You want citations for things that have been Frontline news and evident for every normal person living in this state? The initial YouTube video was CNBC, which you disregarded as bad because of "YouTube". So I guess journalism in the form of a video is illegitimate for you... I guess written articles are more factual for some illogical reason? Fine. Here you go. https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2021-04-27/census-shows-california-population-growth-at-a-record-low https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2021-04-27/... https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-12-21/california-population-continues-to-decline-with-state-emigration-a-major-factor https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-12-21/californ... https://calmatters.org/commentary/2021/05/california-population-decline-drop/ https://calmatters.org/commentary/2021/05/california-populat... https://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-stalled-population-growth/ https://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-stalled-population-gro... https://abc7.com/california-population-decline-congressional-seat/10594297/ https://abc7.com/california-population-decline-congressional... https://qz.com/1599150/californias-population-could-start-shrinking-very-soon/ https://qz.com/1599150/californias-population-could-start-sh... https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/03/31/why-californias-population-boom-has-stalled/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/03/31/why-calif... https://www.kqed.org/news/11872755/california-reports-first-ever-yearly-population-decline https://www.kqed.org/news/11872755/california-reports-first-... https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-to-lose-seat-in-Congress-for-first-16130065.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-to-l... Now I could cite the raw statistics these articles derive their info from. But I felt legitimate news organizations are enough and easier then a raw statistical paper. Let's not get overly pedantic. Do you really want to argue against sfchronicle, quartz, CNBC and the Washington post? I hope to God you're not that type of person. I also hope this was "productive" for you. My definition of productive means imparting new knowledge onto someone less knowledgeable than me. But for some people "productive" means not admitting when they are wrong, refusing to look at raw evidence, and running away from a discussion where they are incorrect. Yeah you can leave this conversation if you feel it isn't "productive." Go. Leave.