3 ms·

Sea level rise will be unevenly distributed, because of gravitational, rebound, and other effects. That tool helpfully provides local scenarios, and the "interm

• jjcon 5y ago
  The highest probability model (intermediate) shows 3.7 feet of rise by 2100 which again really only affects the beach area, if you look at intermediate high (lower probability of corresponding to reality) scenario it starts to hit at some of the areas around the miami river, but again this is far cry from miami being definitively underwater and does not account for riverwalls, floodwalls that are being planned and installed.
  • mrow84 5y ago
    The different scenarios are not constructed to represent the probability distribution of likely outcomes, and the "intermediate" scenario does not represent the "highest probability model". Indeed, given that unpredictable human behaviour is the main driver of the response, it is very difficult to construct a "most likely scenario". Instead, what can be said is "given an emissions scenario (or range of scenarios), these are the probabilities of different outcomes". The sea level rise scenarios themselves only describe the outcomes, and do not correspond to the probabilities. The mapping between emissions scenarios and outcomes can be found in Table 4 here [0]. You may note that for low emissions scenarios the exceedance probabilities don't look too bad, but there is still considerable risk. [0] https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Glo...