3 ms·

Perhaps they control for age? A lot of the lower life expectancy was sky-high infant mortality, and if you made it to 10 in 1850 (hardly preindustrial, but pre

by strken 5y ago

Perhaps they control for age? A lot of the lower life expectancy was sky-high infant mortality, and if you made it to 10 in 1850 (hardly preindustrial, but preindustrial stats are harder to find) you could expect to live to 60 or so. Presumably you'd compare the cancer rates of your study's skeletons with the cancer rates of today's 60 year olds.

nemo44x 5y ago
It’s amazing how precarious being born is. I think I read that about 200 years ago around 40% of people didn’t make it past 5 years old or something like that. Antibiotics have helped a lot in modern times, especially for mothers giving birth.
- retrac 5y ago
  The improvement in child survival is attributed to many things, but it may be a mix of vaccinations, less indoor air pollution, much better hygiene, better nutrition, and perhaps just better parenting. (People have had some very peculiar ideas on how to care for and raise children; I wouldn't be surprised if in hindsight our distant descendants consider us woefully inadequate in that regard too.) Most of the progress, in absolute terms, with reducing maternal mortality and the infant/toddler death rate in the industrialized countries was actually made before antibiotics were developed, in the late 19th / early 20th centuries. In England in 1851 about 26% of children died before the age of 5, falling to 23% in 1891, 19% in 1911, 11% in 1921, 9% in 1931, and 7% in 1941 (and then we're in the antibiotics era).
- inglor_cz 5y ago
  From a pair that has been undergoing IVF treatment since November 2019: it is very precarious. There are a lot of opportunities to die before someone draws their first breath.
- devoutsalsa 5y ago
  Infant mortality was 165 deaths per 1000 births in the year 1900, according to this... https://www.pbs.org/fmc/timeline/dmortality.htm https://www.pbs.org/fmc/timeline/dmortality.htm ...I also like the link to play the video via Real player in the upper left corner :)
- NaturalPhallacy 5y ago
  I personally would have 100% died at least once without antibiotics. Probably several times. My top three favorite human accomplishments of all time are: 1. printing press 2. vaccines 3. antibiotics And the order of the last two is debatable.
  - tuatoru 5y ago
    I would make the last two consequences of the microbe theory of infectious disease, which also led to sanitary water supplies and waste disposal. Why is the theory an accomplishment? Hooke's and van Leeuwenhoek's first observations of micro-organisms in water drops were treated as a meaningless curiosity for about 150 years, and essentially ignored. Finally it was realised that here was an alternative to prevailing ideas about infectious disease that had great explanatory power. The war of ideas lasted until the early twentieth century, when the last doctors clinging to the "miasma" theory and its ilk finally gave up. The theory made vaccines and antibiotics conceptually possible.
lmilcin 5y ago
> A lot of the lower life expectancy was sky-high infant mortality If that was true, then age composition would be roughly the same as is now, except for larger number of infants. You could even argue that if you had weaker infants die, you should end up with statistically stronger adults than now and you should see people live to older age than now. I don't want to say infant mortality rate wasn't high, I just want to say that it has nothing to do with the topic of the discussion.
- ksaj 5y ago
  The weakness in that argument is that it presupposes childhood health indicators and adult health indicators are linear, which we know to not be the case. For example, the introduction and "ramping up" of testosterone and estrogen at puberty has a significant impact on the human condition that simply cannot apply to the prepubescent state, as does their subsequent decline in menopause and old age in general. Each stage of life comes with its own signals that can be serious health conditions if present in other stages of life, but completely normal and healthy at the appropriate stage. A tween with acne is rarely something to call the doctor about. But a 3 year old with acne certainly is. A colicky baby needs a soother or some other placation. But a colicky adult certainly needs medical intervention. So the idea that weak babies make weak adults and strong babies make strong adults doesn't work out as cleanly as this comment suggests.
deleted 5y ago
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okaram 5y ago
I don't have data, but I assume that is only for rich males? Maternity mortality rates were horrible, wars etc
- deleted 5y ago
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by strken 5y ago

nemo44x 5y ago

It’s amazing how precarious being born is. I think I read that about 200 years ago around 40% of people didn’t make it past 5 years old or something like that. Antibiotics have helped a lot in modern times, especially for mothers giving birth.

retrac 5y ago
The improvement in child survival is attributed to many things, but it may be a mix of vaccinations, less indoor air pollution, much better hygiene, better nutrition, and perhaps just better parenting. (People have had some very peculiar ideas on how to care for and raise children; I wouldn't be surprised if in hindsight our distant descendants consider us woefully inadequate in that regard too.) Most of the progress, in absolute terms, with reducing maternal mortality and the infant/toddler death rate in the industrialized countries was actually made before antibiotics were developed, in the late 19th / early 20th centuries. In England in 1851 about 26% of children died before the age of 5, falling to 23% in 1891, 19% in 1911, 11% in 1921, 9% in 1931, and 7% in 1941 (and then we're in the antibiotics era).
inglor_cz 5y ago
From a pair that has been undergoing IVF treatment since November 2019: it is very precarious. There are a lot of opportunities to die before someone draws their first breath.
devoutsalsa 5y ago
Infant mortality was 165 deaths per 1000 births in the year 1900, according to this... https://www.pbs.org/fmc/timeline/dmortality.htm https://www.pbs.org/fmc/timeline/dmortality.htm ...I also like the link to play the video via Real player in the upper left corner :)
NaturalPhallacy 5y ago
I personally would have 100% died at least once without antibiotics. Probably several times. My top three favorite human accomplishments of all time are: 1. printing press 2. vaccines 3. antibiotics And the order of the last two is debatable.
- tuatoru 5y ago
  I would make the last two consequences of the microbe theory of infectious disease, which also led to sanitary water supplies and waste disposal. Why is the theory an accomplishment? Hooke's and van Leeuwenhoek's first observations of micro-organisms in water drops were treated as a meaningless curiosity for about 150 years, and essentially ignored. Finally it was realised that here was an alternative to prevailing ideas about infectious disease that had great explanatory power. The war of ideas lasted until the early twentieth century, when the last doctors clinging to the "miasma" theory and its ilk finally gave up. The theory made vaccines and antibiotics conceptually possible.

lmilcin 5y ago

> A lot of the lower life expectancy was sky-high infant mortality If that was true, then age composition would be roughly the same as is now, except for larger number of infants. You could even argue that if you had weaker infants die, you should end up with statistically stronger adults than now and you should see people live to older age than now. I don't want to say infant mortality rate wasn't high, I just want to say that it has nothing to do with the topic of the discussion.

ksaj 5y ago
The weakness in that argument is that it presupposes childhood health indicators and adult health indicators are linear, which we know to not be the case. For example, the introduction and "ramping up" of testosterone and estrogen at puberty has a significant impact on the human condition that simply cannot apply to the prepubescent state, as does their subsequent decline in menopause and old age in general. Each stage of life comes with its own signals that can be serious health conditions if present in other stages of life, but completely normal and healthy at the appropriate stage. A tween with acne is rarely something to call the doctor about. But a 3 year old with acne certainly is. A colicky baby needs a soother or some other placation. But a colicky adult certainly needs medical intervention. So the idea that weak babies make weak adults and strong babies make strong adults doesn't work out as cleanly as this comment suggests.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

okaram 5y ago

I don't have data, but I assume that is only for rich males? Maternity mortality rates were horrible, wars etc

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]