12 ms·

As a first pass, wouldn't this be good for China? TSMC was strategic for Taiwan, as a military takeover of Taiwan (where the plants will likely be damaged or sc

by mook 5y ago

As a first pass, wouldn't this be good for China? TSMC was strategic for Taiwan, as a military takeover of Taiwan (where the plants will likely be damaged or scuttled) would be economically damaging for the US. That might be a bit different if the US has enough high-the fabs internally. I'd love to hear better analysis; I'm not confident of my understanding here.

Laforet 5y ago
Politically it would be ideal to keep everything in Taiwan as this greatly increases the stakes for a potential war. However there is a pressing shortage of electricity in Taiwan. Just yesterday there had been a major blackout as one of the coal fired power stations suddenly went off the grid. I'm sure TSMC has been given priority supply but they are cutting it extremely close. Taiwan is just not a good place to have more fabs right now. The shortage is unlikely to get better in the long term, with existing nuclear power stations nearing the end of their service life and the replacement stuck in political limbo. And there are already plans to move all 28nm+ process to China so they could better utilize the resources in Taiwan for the more profitable products. https://amp.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3131823/why-has-tsmcs-nanjing-expansion-plan-stirred-hornets-nest-beijing-and https://amp.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3131823/why-has-t...
- cm2187 5y ago
  I read the main problem at the moment for fabs in Taiwan is water shortages. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/TSMC-tackles-Taiwan-drought-with-plant-to-reuse-water-for-chips https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/TSMC-ta...
  - JohnJamesRambo 5y ago
    “Better move to Arizona.”
  - Laforet 5y ago
    TSMC reportedly uses over 50 million tonnes of water per year, which is a drop in the bucket compared to the annual 12 billion tonnes consumed by agriculture. https://highscope.ch.ntu.edu.tw/wordpress/?p=42837 https://highscope.ch.ntu.edu.tw/wordpress/?p=42837 In any case, the current drought is likely to ease at some point but the electricity problem is only going to get worse.
    - thu2111 5y ago
      Are those numbers really comparable? Agriculture can use more or less any kind of water, can handle sporadic supply and is spread over a wide area. Fabs need very large quantities of highly purified water in very small high density locations and it's an industrial facility so can't handle interruptions well. It could easily be that there's a shortage of water affecting fabs whilst agriculture is fine.
      - Laforet 5y ago
        You are right that fabs require a much higher grade of water but the overall quantity is much less. Yet with farmers suffering the worst effect of the drought it is very difficult for TSMC to expand production without looking like the bad guy who profit at other people's expense. Notwithstanding the fact that the actual amount of water they use is not significant. NYT has a pretty good piece of reporting about the situation: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/technology/taiwan-drought-tsmc-semiconductors.amp.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/tech...
        tekknik 5y ago
        The actual link instead of an AMP one (please stop using AMP) https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/technology/taiwan-drought-tsmc-semiconductors.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/technology/taiwan-drought...
    - account42 5y ago
      > the electricity problem is only going to get worse. That's not a given at all - Taiwan could just build more nuclear power plants if they wanted.
andy_ppp 5y ago
China will do everything it can to keep the factories in a war, it’s likely the US would offer a lot of Taiwanese US visas especially those in tech, it’s likely the Taiwanese people will have a general strike and the whole place will be very unpleasant to live in after probably many hundreds of thousands of Chinese dead due to choke points getting onto the island. It’s likely after an invasion most production for the West will have to move to other cheaper countries. I can’t see how we can do business with a country that invaded a democratic country. I really don’t get why China care so much or the CCP see their hold over China as so weak they don’t want to be a part of the world system. But it’s their loss and America will have a clear competitor to focus minds and have a Cold War with again.
- Dah00n 5y ago
  >I can’t see how we can do business with a country that invaded a democratic country. Where do we draw the line? Because there is one country in the western world that would be banned from trade if destroying democracies are not allowed. It is also the only country in the world that has toppled governments so many times it has its own Wikipedia article. So unless you define it as only "full-scale invasion" the US would have to be put outside.
  - babayega2 5y ago
    As someone from Africa with knowledge of USA involvement in toppling some governments here, I sometimes wonder who's worst? A country I know for certain it has invaded unilaterally others (USA) or a country with potential of one day in the future for invading countries (China).
    - onetimemanytime 5y ago
      OK, in theory you are right. But I doubt the average citizen lost from that. Did those guys win elections or just stole them /took power by gun to loot the country?
      - Dah00n 5y ago

by mook 5y ago

Laforet 5y ago

Politically it would be ideal to keep everything in Taiwan as this greatly increases the stakes for a potential war. However there is a pressing shortage of electricity in Taiwan. Just yesterday there had been a major blackout as one of the coal fired power stations suddenly went off the grid. I'm sure TSMC has been given priority supply but they are cutting it extremely close. Taiwan is just not a good place to have more fabs right now. The shortage is unlikely to get better in the long term, with existing nuclear power stations nearing the end of their service life and the replacement stuck in political limbo. And there are already plans to move all 28nm+ process to China so they could better utilize the resources in Taiwan for the more profitable products. https://amp.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3131823/why-has-tsmcs-nanjing-expansion-plan-stirred-hornets-nest-beijing-and https://amp.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3131823/why-has-t...

cm2187 5y ago
I read the main problem at the moment for fabs in Taiwan is water shortages. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/TSMC-tackles-Taiwan-drought-with-plant-to-reuse-water-for-chips https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/TSMC-ta...
- JohnJamesRambo 5y ago
  “Better move to Arizona.”
- Laforet 5y ago
  TSMC reportedly uses over 50 million tonnes of water per year, which is a drop in the bucket compared to the annual 12 billion tonnes consumed by agriculture. https://highscope.ch.ntu.edu.tw/wordpress/?p=42837 https://highscope.ch.ntu.edu.tw/wordpress/?p=42837 In any case, the current drought is likely to ease at some point but the electricity problem is only going to get worse.
  - thu2111 5y ago
    Are those numbers really comparable? Agriculture can use more or less any kind of water, can handle sporadic supply and is spread over a wide area. Fabs need very large quantities of highly purified water in very small high density locations and it's an industrial facility so can't handle interruptions well. It could easily be that there's a shortage of water affecting fabs whilst agriculture is fine.
    - Laforet 5y ago
      You are right that fabs require a much higher grade of water but the overall quantity is much less. Yet with farmers suffering the worst effect of the drought it is very difficult for TSMC to expand production without looking like the bad guy who profit at other people's expense. Notwithstanding the fact that the actual amount of water they use is not significant. NYT has a pretty good piece of reporting about the situation: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/technology/taiwan-drought-tsmc-semiconductors.amp.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/tech...
      - tekknik 5y ago
        The actual link instead of an AMP one (please stop using AMP) https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/technology/taiwan-drought-tsmc-semiconductors.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/technology/taiwan-drought...
  - account42 5y ago
    > the electricity problem is only going to get worse. That's not a given at all - Taiwan could just build more nuclear power plants if they wanted.

andy_ppp 5y ago

China will do everything it can to keep the factories in a war, it’s likely the US would offer a lot of Taiwanese US visas especially those in tech, it’s likely the Taiwanese people will have a general strike and the whole place will be very unpleasant to live in after probably many hundreds of thousands of Chinese dead due to choke points getting onto the island. It’s likely after an invasion most production for the West will have to move to other cheaper countries. I can’t see how we can do business with a country that invaded a democratic country. I really don’t get why China care so much or the CCP see their hold over China as so weak they don’t want to be a part of the world system. But it’s their loss and America will have a clear competitor to focus minds and have a Cold War with again.

Dah00n 5y ago
>I can’t see how we can do business with a country that invaded a democratic country. Where do we draw the line? Because there is one country in the western world that would be banned from trade if destroying democracies are not allowed. It is also the only country in the world that has toppled governments so many times it has its own Wikipedia article. So unless you define it as only "full-scale invasion" the US would have to be put outside.
- babayega2 5y ago
  As someone from Africa with knowledge of USA involvement in toppling some governments here, I sometimes wonder who's worst? A country I know for certain it has invaded unilaterally others (USA) or a country with potential of one day in the future for invading countries (China).
  - onetimemanytime 5y ago
    OK, in theory you are right. But I doubt the average citizen lost from that. Did those guys win elections or just stole them /took power by gun to loot the country?
    - Dah00n 5y ago