2 ms·

Russia did it in Crimea by barely firing a shot. Everyone took note. Taiwan may be 'grabbed' with little violence, and China can promise 'certain freedoms' (i

Russia did it in Crimea by barely firing a shot. Everyone took note. Taiwan may be 'grabbed' with little violence, and China can promise 'certain freedoms' (i.e fake democracy) so that feckless leaders around the world can 'save face' and say 'oh, we don't like it, but it's not that bad, please keep buying our crap, so we can buy your crap'. China takes the 'long view' - long enough that it supercedes any populist cycle. Over 30 years of 'soft occupation' and incremental erosion of rights, thery'll be nothing left of Taiwan. Elderly Gen Z-ers will look back at their tweets from childhood and wonder.

indeedmug 5y ago
I don't think you can say that the West ignored Crimea. There are still sanctions against Russia and they are not going to be lifted anytime soon. The thing about Crimea is that it's in a slatemate where neither side can displace each other without sacrificing huge resources. So it's basically at the same place for years. https://youtu.be/nR7XAcArAa0 https://youtu.be/nR7XAcArAa0 The problem with invading Tawian is that there is a basically a single place where you can land ships on from China. Tawian been preparing for an invasion for years. This means this single point is heavily defended and anyone attacking is on a huge disadvantage. This means there is a huge price to pay to take Tawian and even if you do, there would likely be sanctions from the West. https://youtu.be/qsjJ5QvNmd8 https://youtu.be/qsjJ5QvNmd8
- jollybean 5y ago
  The West reaction to Crimea was exactly what I was alluding to: nothing but an effette attempt to face save a little bit. It was encouraging enough for Putin to try the same thing in the Baltic states, thankfully, NATO reacted ahead of time. "The problem with invading Tawian " They're not going to invade with amphibious ships. They're going to invade by stripping the country of it's economic viability, by fomenting agitators, corrupting politicians, stuffing ballots. And then support the coup at the right time.
jjcon 5y ago
Crimea didn’t have decades of preparation making strategic allies to defend it, nor was it of similar strategic importance to allies. That is also not to mention the fact that, Russia is not exactly doing great in the wake of the annexation.

indeedmug 5y ago

I don't think you can say that the West ignored Crimea. There are still sanctions against Russia and they are not going to be lifted anytime soon. The thing about Crimea is that it's in a slatemate where neither side can displace each other without sacrificing huge resources. So it's basically at the same place for years. https://youtu.be/nR7XAcArAa0 https://youtu.be/nR7XAcArAa0 The problem with invading Tawian is that there is a basically a single place where you can land ships on from China. Tawian been preparing for an invasion for years. This means this single point is heavily defended and anyone attacking is on a huge disadvantage. This means there is a huge price to pay to take Tawian and even if you do, there would likely be sanctions from the West. https://youtu.be/qsjJ5QvNmd8 https://youtu.be/qsjJ5QvNmd8

jollybean 5y ago
The West reaction to Crimea was exactly what I was alluding to: nothing but an effette attempt to face save a little bit. It was encouraging enough for Putin to try the same thing in the Baltic states, thankfully, NATO reacted ahead of time. "The problem with invading Tawian " They're not going to invade with amphibious ships. They're going to invade by stripping the country of it's economic viability, by fomenting agitators, corrupting politicians, stuffing ballots. And then support the coup at the right time.

jjcon 5y ago

Crimea didn’t have decades of preparation making strategic allies to defend it, nor was it of similar strategic importance to allies. That is also not to mention the fact that, Russia is not exactly doing great in the wake of the annexation.