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I kinda see it the exact opposite way, I don’t think China would ever dare risk a full out war which would essentially be them vs the world. Taiwan is extremely

by jjcon 5y ago

I kinda see it the exact opposite way, I don’t think China would ever dare risk a full out war which would essentially be them vs the world. Taiwan is extremely valuable but not valuable enough to risk complete devastation of their economy if not by war then by international trade. The US is routinely running freedom of navigation exercises in the south china sea between taiwan and china and has said as recently as last month that its commitment to defend taiwan is, “rock solid”. This is all not to mention that taiwan itself would not be all that easy to overthrow, the large majority of people there have unfavorable views of china (and conversely the majority support closer political ties to the US and other free democracies which they have and continue to build).

jollybean 5y ago
Russia did it in Crimea by barely firing a shot. Everyone took note. Taiwan may be 'grabbed' with little violence, and China can promise 'certain freedoms' (i.e fake democracy) so that feckless leaders around the world can 'save face' and say 'oh, we don't like it, but it's not that bad, please keep buying our crap, so we can buy your crap'. China takes the 'long view' - long enough that it supercedes any populist cycle. Over 30 years of 'soft occupation' and incremental erosion of rights, thery'll be nothing left of Taiwan. Elderly Gen Z-ers will look back at their tweets from childhood and wonder.
- indeedmug 5y ago
  I don't think you can say that the West ignored Crimea. There are still sanctions against Russia and they are not going to be lifted anytime soon. The thing about Crimea is that it's in a slatemate where neither side can displace each other without sacrificing huge resources. So it's basically at the same place for years. https://youtu.be/nR7XAcArAa0 https://youtu.be/nR7XAcArAa0 The problem with invading Tawian is that there is a basically a single place where you can land ships on from China. Tawian been preparing for an invasion for years. This means this single point is heavily defended and anyone attacking is on a huge disadvantage. This means there is a huge price to pay to take Tawian and even if you do, there would likely be sanctions from the West. https://youtu.be/qsjJ5QvNmd8 https://youtu.be/qsjJ5QvNmd8
  - jollybean 5y ago
    The West reaction to Crimea was exactly what I was alluding to: nothing but an effette attempt to face save a little bit. It was encouraging enough for Putin to try the same thing in the Baltic states, thankfully, NATO reacted ahead of time. "The problem with invading Tawian " They're not going to invade with amphibious ships. They're going to invade by stripping the country of it's economic viability, by fomenting agitators, corrupting politicians, stuffing ballots. And then support the coup at the right time.
- jjcon 5y ago
  Crimea didn’t have decades of preparation making strategic allies to defend it, nor was it of similar strategic importance to allies. That is also not to mention the fact that, Russia is not exactly doing great in the wake of the annexation.

by jjcon 5y ago

jollybean 5y ago

Russia did it in Crimea by barely firing a shot. Everyone took note. Taiwan may be 'grabbed' with little violence, and China can promise 'certain freedoms' (i.e fake democracy) so that feckless leaders around the world can 'save face' and say 'oh, we don't like it, but it's not that bad, please keep buying our crap, so we can buy your crap'. China takes the 'long view' - long enough that it supercedes any populist cycle. Over 30 years of 'soft occupation' and incremental erosion of rights, thery'll be nothing left of Taiwan. Elderly Gen Z-ers will look back at their tweets from childhood and wonder.

indeedmug 5y ago
I don't think you can say that the West ignored Crimea. There are still sanctions against Russia and they are not going to be lifted anytime soon. The thing about Crimea is that it's in a slatemate where neither side can displace each other without sacrificing huge resources. So it's basically at the same place for years. https://youtu.be/nR7XAcArAa0 https://youtu.be/nR7XAcArAa0 The problem with invading Tawian is that there is a basically a single place where you can land ships on from China. Tawian been preparing for an invasion for years. This means this single point is heavily defended and anyone attacking is on a huge disadvantage. This means there is a huge price to pay to take Tawian and even if you do, there would likely be sanctions from the West. https://youtu.be/qsjJ5QvNmd8 https://youtu.be/qsjJ5QvNmd8
- jollybean 5y ago
  The West reaction to Crimea was exactly what I was alluding to: nothing but an effette attempt to face save a little bit. It was encouraging enough for Putin to try the same thing in the Baltic states, thankfully, NATO reacted ahead of time. "The problem with invading Tawian " They're not going to invade with amphibious ships. They're going to invade by stripping the country of it's economic viability, by fomenting agitators, corrupting politicians, stuffing ballots. And then support the coup at the right time.
jjcon 5y ago
Crimea didn’t have decades of preparation making strategic allies to defend it, nor was it of similar strategic importance to allies. That is also not to mention the fact that, Russia is not exactly doing great in the wake of the annexation.