4 ms·
By 2026, apparently: "But because we’re doubling the rate of progress every decade, we’ll see a century of progress–at today’s rate–in only 25 calendar years."
by yters 15y ago
By 2026, apparently:
"But because we’re doubling the rate of progress every decade, we’ll see a century of progress–at today’s rate–in only 25 calendar years."
"In line with my earlier predictions, supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by around 2020. By 2030, it will take a village of human brains (around a thousand) to match $1000 of computing."
So, have super computers achieved one human brain's worth of computing? I believe we're only in the petaflop range, which is a factor of 10^10 behind his prediction.
At any rate, I believe AI is logically impossible.
- tree_of_item 15y agoWhat? What about it is "logically impossible"? I really doubt you have a proof that it is impossible, so why the appeal to "logic"?
- yters 15y agoIf we are intelligent agents per Dembski's description of intelligence, then there is a logical proof that we cannot be artificial intelligences.
- tree_of_item 15y agoI don't think that's a sensible claim at all. "Proof that humans are not artificial intelligences" doesn't even seem to be a coherent idea. I'm going to go ahead and assume you've misunderstood what this person was talking about, as the alternative is to say that you're sitting on proof of the impossibility of a very quickly moving field with extremely deep implications for the future of humanity, and I've never once heard of it. Unless you'd like to explain it :)
- D_Alex 15y agoEstimates of the computing power of human brain vary widely, the ones that have some logic behind them range from 0.1 to 1000 petaflops. IMHO, they tend to be very "pro-brain", and should be seen as an upper limit. Currently, the fastest supercomputer does abt 8 petaflops. This might be already 80 times more than the power of a human brain. And it could be less.. but where is your 10^10 factor from?
- yters 15y agoAh, whoops, I took his human race number. n/m, seems we're on track for computational performance, or even ahead of schedule. Sweet, I should start seeing human type sentience any day now!