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I don't know, that just raises the stakes so that losing would be much more embarrassing (as if that's the most important thing in geopolitics). I mean, imagin
by elihu 5y ago
I don't know, that just raises the stakes so that losing would be much more embarrassing (as if that's the most important thing in geopolitics).
I mean, imagine the scenario where Taiwan becomes a U.S. state and then China invades and takes it anyways. And suppose the U.S. can't take it back without all-out (possibly nuclear) war, so they back down and let China have it.
That's a possible outcome that would have to be contemplated if Taiwan were to join the U.S.
- dnautics 5y agoSuppose china invades Taiwan. Then what? They become a pariah state and lose all of their international trading partners for things like oil. Something like 50% of Chinese agriculture is dependent on foreign oil inputs...
- magicsmoke 5y agoNot sure Russia, Iran, or the Saudis give a shit about Taiwan. China only loses its oil shipments if it can't secure shipping through the Indian ocean or build an overland alternative. It won't make a move until those are complete.
- dnautics 5y agoHow does it even get to the Indian ocean? Will Indonesia let china-bound oil tankers through? Will Chinese oil tankers need to go around Australia to get to Iran or Saudi Arabia?