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The TSMC chip bottleneck makes it a red line for the US and China knows that. They're patient, no need to do it in a time period when it guarantees maximum blo
by refenestrator 5y ago
The TSMC chip bottleneck makes it a red line for the US and China knows that. They're patient, no need to do it in a time period when it guarantees maximum blowback.
- kragen 5y agoOn the other hand, the US has been aggressively escalating the TSMC conflict with targeted attacks on the PRC's nuclear and supercomputing capabilities: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/04/us-adds-chinese-supercomputing-companies-to-export-blacklist/ https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/04/us-adds-chinese-... and semiconductor fabrication has been a key technology for several five-year plans. So the PRC's patience may run out sooner than you think.
- refenestrator 5y agoWay better ROI to invest in more capabilities than engage in a zero-sum conflict which will inevitably trash the fabs in Taiwan anyways. Those trade restrictions just galvanize the Chinese to develop the capabilities themselves. And their system doesn't create a need for a big splashy foreign conflict to sell to the hogs for votes. They're more capable of making the smart play than we are.
- kragen 5y agoChinese reunification seems unlikely to trash the fabs in Taiwan.