It might be because a global pandemic is assumed to depress people's spirits, which isn't what we'd expect to increase productivity. So we rely on our intuitio

It might be because a global pandemic is assumed to depress people's spirits, which isn't what we'd expect to increase productivity. So we rely on our intuition for directionality? Should be studied more, but wouldn't you be surprised to know that the pandemic itself (stress, isolation, deferred medical care, etc.) caused an increase?